Wizard Daily Report and Research - Saturday, 6 January 2024.
Finish position last start - Statistics
Finish position last start - SP Favourite - Statistical overview
One often hears the comment that "winning form is the best form", and there would be very few, if any, horse-race bettors who do not check where a horse finished at its last start. How important that piece of information is in determining the final decision about the horse's chance varies, of course, but the fact that checking the latest form of the horse is fundamental to form analysis suggests it is worth looking at a little more closely.
This report looks at the performance of the Starting Price (SP) Favourite and its success rate when coming off a particular last start finish position.
For this report the last start finish position ranges are:
- 1st only
- 2nd - 3rd place
- 4th - 6th place
- 7th - 10th place
The results cover two full racing seasons, 2021-2022 and 2022-2023.
The analysis reports on the success rate of the Starting Price Favourite in terms of:
Location - this analysis looks at this success rate:
- Overall all locations
- Metropolitan racing
- Provincial racing
- Country racing
Age - the data is further broken down into three age groups:
- 2yo gallopers
- 3yo gallopers
- 4yo+ gallopers
(Note: A further condition has been applied in this analysis - the horse must have raced within the last 1 to 59 days; that is, we are excluding horses resuming from a spell.)
Table - SP favourite performance and Last Start Finish position
| 2yo | LS win | Win | win% | LS 2/3 | Win | win% | LS 4/6 | Win | win% | LS 7/10 | Win | win% |
| Overall | 257 | 116 | 45.1% | 382 | 160 | 41.9% | 159 | 59 | 37.1% | *41 | 17 | 41.5% |
| Metropolitan | 167 | 73 | 43.7% | 126 | 47 | 37.3% | *46 | 8 | 17.4% | *11 | 5 | 45.5% |
| Provincial | *45 | 19 | 42.2% | 155 | 68 | 43.9% | *62 | 30 | 48.4% | *16 | 3 | 18.8% |
| Country | *45 | 24 | 53.5% | 101 | 45 | 44.6% | *51 | 21 | 41.2% | *14 | 9 | 64.3% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 3yo | LS win | Win | win% | LS 2/3 | Win | win% | LS 4/6 | Win | win% | LS 7/10 | Win | win% |
| Overall | 1919 | 694 | 36.2% | 3743 | 1462 | 39.1% | 1870 | 691 | 37.0% | 624 | 225 | 36.1% |
| Metropolitan | 764 | 238 | 31.9% | 782 | 288 | 36.8% | 303 | 97 | 32.0% | *95 | 31 | 32.6% |
| Provincial | 657 | 250 | 38.1% | 1682 | 636 | 37.8% | 796 | 296 | 37.2% | 278 | 94 | 33.8% |
| Country | 516 | 206 | 39.9% | 1279 | 538 | 42.1% | 771 | 298 | 38.7% | 251 | 100 | 39.8% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 4yo+ | LS win | Win | win% | LS 2/3 | Win | win% | LS 4/6 | Win | win% | LS 7/10 | Win | win% |
| Overall | 4565 | 1622 | 35.5% | 7905 | 2677 | 33.9% | 4814 | 1494 | 31.0% | 2011 | 598 | 29.7% |
| Metropolitan | 1446 | 495 | 34.2% | 1623 | 530 | 32.7% | 858 | 259 | 30.2% | 264 | 75 | 28.4% |
| Provincial | 1256 | 437 | 34.8% | 2612 | 871 | 33.3% | 1565 | 485 | 31.0% | 645 | 194 | 30.1% |
| Country | 1863 | 690 | 37.0% | 3670 | 1276 | 34.8% | 2391 | 750 | 31.4% | 1102 | 329 | 29.9% |
* insufficient runners for meaningful result
na - insufficient runners for meaningful result
Some take-aways from this analysis:
- For 4yo+ gallopers, the success rate does decline as the finish position worsens (return - lower rates offset by SP odds).
- For 3yo's, win strikes rates for 2nd and 3rd last start are higher than for last start winners.
- For 3yo's, SP favs who are last start winners basically do not out-perform other categories.
- Win strike rates are higher for 3yo gallopers compared to those of 4yo+.
(The results for the 3yo SP favourites over the 2021-2023 seasons are rather surprising. Later I will investigate over a longer time period.)
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com