Wizard Daily Report and Research - Friday, 5 January 2024.
Days since last run (part 3)
Days since last run - Wizard Rating
This report looks at the performance of the Starting Price (SP) Favourite in terms of runs from a spell and integrates the Wizard Rating (Wrat) into the analysis.
The results cover two full racing seasons, 2021-2022 and 2022-2023.
The analysis reports on the overall success rate of the Starting Price Favourite across the various days-break categories and then sees how these runners have performed when they ran as the Wizard 100 pointer.
The analysis reports on three age groups:
- 2yo gallopers
- 3yo gallopers
- 4yo+ gallopers
Table - Days since last run - Overall and Wizard Rated.
| | | 1-7 | | | 8-14 | | | 15-21 | | | 22-28 | |
| 2yo | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% |
| Overall | 25 | 9 | 36.0% | 320 | 134 | 41.9% | 304 | 134 | 44.1% | 116 | 48 | 41.4% |
| Wizard Wrat | na | na | na | 207 | 94 | 45.4% | 186 | 86 | 46.2% | na | na | na |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | 1-7 | | | 8-14 | | | 15-21 | | | 22-28 | |
| 3yo | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% |
| Overall | 304 | 108 | 35.5% | 3041 | 1148 | 37.8% | 3114 | 1183 | 38.0% | 1147 | 428 | 37.3% |
| Wizard Wrat | 169 | 71 | 42.0% | 1664 | 678 | 40.7% | 1745 | 711 | 40.7% | 657 | 247 | 37.6% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | 1-7 | | | 8-14 | | | 15-21 | | | 22-28 | |
| 4yo+ | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% |
| Overall | 1579 | 524 | 33.2% | 7408 | 2520 | 34.0% | 6225 | 2062 | 33.1% | 2600 | 840 | 32.3% |
| Wizard Wrat | 592 | 218 | 36.8% | 3524 | 1305 | 37.0% | 3023 | 1096 | 36.3% | 1266 | 447 | 35.3% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | 29-60 | | | 61-180 | | | 181-365 | | | >365 | |
| 2yo | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% |
| Overall | 80 | 30 | 37.5% | 183 | 71 | 38.8% | 14 | 8 | 57.1 | na | na | na |
| Wizard Wrat | 53 | 21 | 39.6% | 90 | 34 | 37.8% | na | na | na | na | na | na |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | 29-60 | | | 61-180 | | | 181-365 | | | >365 | |
| 3yo | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% |
| Overall | 675 | 245 | 36.3% | 1591 | 593 | 37.3% | 397 | 145 | 36.5% | 16 | 8 | 50.0% |
| Wizard Wrat | 363 | 148 | 40.8% | 769 | 294 | 38.2% | 167 | 68 | 40.7% | na | na | na |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | 29-60 | | | 61-180 | | | 181-365 | | | >365 | |
| 4yo+ | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% |
| Overall | 1751 | 527 | 30.1% | 1809 | 634 | 35.0% | 780 | 268 | 34.4% | *97 | 33 | 34.0% |
| Wizard Wrat | 811 | 272 | 33.5% | 719 | 281 | 39.1% | 343 | 134 | 39.1% | *24 | 11 | 45.8% |
na insufficient runners for meaningful result
* insufficient runners for meaningful result
It is clear from these results that there is an uplift factor in play when the SP favourite is rated 100 by the Wizard.
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com