Wizard Daily Report and Research - Sunday, 31 December 2023.
Betting Markets (part 12)
Betting Markets - Starting Price Favourite - Firming, Steady, Easing.
Recently we looked at the betting market moves of the meetings run between Saturday, December 16 and Wednesday, December 20
When summing up the results from those five days of racing the point was made that the period covered was too brief to be representative of what could happen over the course of a full racing season.
I have now run up the results from the 2022-2023 racing season.
The fluctuation used here for comparison purposes is the mid-point odds reported by AAP/Mediality and the horse is categorised as a firmer if the SP is shorter than the mid-point price.
The analysis reports on the success rate of the Starting Price Favourite when it firms, remains steady, or eases in the latter stage of wagering.
In terms of location, this analysis looks at this success rate:
- Overall all locations
- Metropolitan racing
- Provincial racing
- Country racing
In addition to the location sub-division of the data, it is further broken down into three age groups:
- 2yo gallopers
- 3yo gallopers
- 4yo+ gallopers
Table - Starting price favourite results when firming, steady, or easing - 2022-2023 season
| All Ages | Firming | Win | win% | Steady | Win | win% | Easing | Win | win% |
| Overall | 9592 | 3501 | 36.5% | 1826 | 627 | 34.3% | 6083 | 1950 | 32.1% |
| Metropolitan | 1869 | 640 | 34.2% | 523 | 165 | 31.5% | 1423 | 438 | 30.8% |
| Provincial | 3529 | 1294 | 36.7% | 651 | 237 | 36.4% | 2235 | 708 | 31.7% |
| Country | 4194 | 1567 | 37.4% | 652 | 225 | 34.5% | 2425 | 804 | 33.2% |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| 2yo | Firming | Win | win% | Steady | Win | win% | Easing | Win | win% |
| Overall | 399 | 164 | 41.1% | na | na | na | 255 | 85 | 33.3% |
| Metropolitan | 128 | 49 | 38.3% | na | na | na | 105 | 35 | 33.3% |
| Provincial | 158 | 59 | 37.3% | na | na | na | 100 | 32 | 32.0% |
| Country | 113 | 56 | 49.6% | na | na | na | na | na | na |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| 3yo | Firming | Win | win% | Steady | Win | win% | Easing | Win | win% |
| Overall | 2832 | 1143 | 40.4% | 596 | 220 | 36.9% | 1964 | 697 | 35.5% |
| Metropolitan | 562 | 212 | 37.7% | 162 | 49 | 30.2% | 471 | 150 | 31.8% |
| Provincial | 1276 | 493 | 38.6% | 252 | 106 | 42.1% | 861 | 317 | 36.8% |
| Country | 994 | 438 | 44.1% | 182 | 65 | 35.7% | 632 | 230 | 36.4% |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| 4yo+ | Firming | Win | win% | Steady | Win | win% | Easing | Win | win% |
| Overall | 6399 | 2199 | 34.4% | 1176 | 384 | 32.7% | 3899 | 1175 | 30.1% |
| Metropolitan | 1187 | 380 | 32.0% | 331 | 101 | 30.5% | 851 | 253 | 29.7% |
| Provincial | 2117 | 744 | 35.1% | 382 | 126 | 33.0% | 1291 | 362 | 28.0% |
| Country | 3095 | 1075 | 34.7% | 463 | 157 | 33.9% | 1757 | 560 | 31.9% |
na - insufficient runners for meaningful result
Some take-aways from this analysis:
- With few exceptions, the win strike rate is higher if a firmer, and worsens from steady to easing.
- Win strikes rates are higher in provincial and country racing.
- Win strike rates are higher for 2yo and 3yo gallopers, compared to those of 4yo+.
- The lowest strikes rates were for 4yo+ gallopers, with two categories less than 30%.
When researching this topic, I also checked the overall strikes rates for the Wizard 100 pointer (Wrat) during the 2022-2023 season if it ran as the Starting Price favourite. The figures were: Firming (40.8%), Steady (37.0%), and Easing (33.3%).
(to be continued)
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com