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Betting Markets (part 7)

Wizard Daily Report and Research Tuesday, 26 December 2023.

Betting Markets (part 7)

Betting Markets - Firmed, Steady, Eased (day 5)

Today continuing the analysis of betting market moves.

Here, presenting the data from Wednesday, December 20, and then aggregating the data from the five days covered.

Also covered today is some detail on the market action of the starting price favourite at some of the meetings run on Saturday, December 16.

We are looking at the odds available at two time points during betting and at the end point of betting, the starting price.

The two time points are at 15 minutes from race start, and at 5 minutes from race start.

At the 15m mark we are comparing the odds available at the 30 minutes mark with those at 15 minutes.

At the 5m mark we are comparing the odds available at the 15 minutes mark with those at 5 minutes.

The 15 minute and 5 minute marks can be viewed as decision points; to bet or not bet, the likely favourite at that particular time.

At both these time points we can see if the odds are firming, steady, or easing.

(The firming relates to a point in time. The price offered at 15 minutes before race start is being compared to that at 30 minutes. It does not account for the situation where a horse might have firmed during this 30m-15m time period, and then eased back to its 30 minute quote by the time the 15 minutes price was noted. This interval firming can happen, of course, but it is not a frequent occurrence and does not invalidate the overall pattern of firming transactions shown here.)

The following table provides an insight into the betting market dynamics across the Wednesday meetings.

Table 1 - Market movements at 15m and 5m before race start firming, steady, easing.

Race day

Starters

Firmed

Steady

Eased

Steady

Firmed

Steady

Eased

Firmed

Steady

Eased

at 15m

at sp

at 15m

at sp

at 15m

at sp

fr 30m

fr 15m

fr 30m

fr 15m

fr 30m

fr 15m

20/12/2023

452

260

148

111

18%

42%

14%

44%

58%

27%

16%

57%

25%

21%

14%

65%

Race day

Starters

Firmed

Steady

Eased

Steady

Firmed

Steady

Eased

Firmed

Steady

Eased

at 5m

at sp

at 5m

at sp

at 5m

at sp

fr 15m

fr 5m

fr 15m

fr 5m

fr 15m

fr 5m

20/12/2023

452

108

131

213

123

24%

44%

16%

40%

29%

24%

31%

45%

47%

20%

22%

58%

Starter the number of runners in the race.

Firmed at 15m fr 30m number and percentage of runners that were a shorter price at 15m than at 30m.

Firmed at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were a shorter price at SP than at 15m.

Steady at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were the same odds at SP and 15m.

Eased at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were a longer price at SP than at 15m

Steady at 15m fr 30m number and percentage of runners that were the same odds at 15m and 30m.

Firmed at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were a shorter price at SP than at 15m.

Steady at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were the same odds at SP and 15m.

Eased at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were a longer price at SP than at 15m

Eased at 15m fr 30m number and percentage of runners that were at longer odds at 15m than at 30m.

Firmed at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were a shorter price at SP than at 15m.

Steady at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were the same odds at SP and 15m.

Eased at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were a longer price at SP than at 15m

The same analysis has been done between the 15 minute mark and 5 minutes before race start time.

In the following table I have aggregated the data from the five days covered, and present the percentages appropriate to each situation.

Table 2 - Aggregated market movements at 15m and 5m before race start firming, steady, easing.

at 15m from 30m
	Starters	Firmed	Firmed	Steady	Eased	Steady	Firmed	Steady	Eased	Eased	Firmed	Steady	Eased
		at 15m	at sp	at sp	at sp	at 15m	at sp	at sp	at sp	at 15m	at sp	at sp	at sp
		fr 30m	fr 15m	fr 15m	fr 15m	fr 30m	fr 15m	fr 15m	fr 15m	fr 30m	fr 15m	fr 15m	fr 15m
16.12.23	1146	14%	38%	13%	49%	65%	27%	14%	59%	21%	29%	15%	56%
17.12.23	658	13%	36%	9%	55%	71%	27%	12%	61%	15%	22%	12%	66%
18.12.23	128	11%	43%	22%	36%	64%	24%	10%	66%	25%	31%	9%	59%
19.12.23	153	17%	31%	15%	54%	58%	30%	24%	47%	25%	36%	13%	51%
20.12.23	452	18%	42%	14%	44%	58%	27%	16%	57%	25%	21%	14%	65%

Total	2537	15%	38%	13%	49%	65%	27%	14%	59%	20%	27%	14%	59%


at 5m from 15m
	Starters	Firmed	Firmed	Steady	Eased	Steady	Firmed	Steady	Eased	Eased	Firmed	Steady	Eased
		at 5m	at sp	at sp	at sp	at 5m	at sp	at sp	at sp	at 5m	at sp	at sp	at sp
		fr 15m	fr 5m	fr 5m	fr 5m	fr 15m	fr 5m	fr 5m	fr 5m	fr 15m	fr 5m	fr 5m	fr 5m
16.12.23	1146	23%	39%	17%	44%	33%	28%	21%	51%	43%	24%	17%	59%
17.12.23	658	20%	44%	20%	36%	37%	27%	18%	55%	43%	19%	13%	68%
18.12.23	128	22%	43%	7%	50%	33%	26%	19%	55%	45%	17%	10%	72%
19.12.23	153	24%	39%	17%	44%	35%	34%	38%	28%	42%	25%	9%	66%
20.12.23	452	24%	44%	16%	40%	29%	24%	31%	45%	47%	20%	22%	58%
Total	2537	22%	41%	17%	42%	34%	27%	23%	50%	44%	22%	16%	62%

Total	2085	22%	41%	17%	42%	35%	28%	21%	51%	43%	22%	15%	63%

Looking at table 2 we can see the pattern of firming, easing, and holding steady has not really varied across the four days.

In the following tables is shown the market action of the race favourite in another four meetings run on Saturday, December 16. (The remaining meetings will be covered in coming days.)

Table 3 - Market action - Race favourites

Meeting	Race	Starters	30m	15m	5m	SP	SP odds	Finish
Caulfield	1	7	1.90	steady	steady	firm	1.80	1st
16.12.23	2	7	3.00	firm	firm	steady	2.60	2nd
	3	6	2.70	ease	ease	ease	3.30	unp
	4	9	2.00	steady	firm	firm	1.70	1st
	5	10	2.80	firm	steady	firm	2.60	1st
	6	10	3.70	ease	steady	ease	4.00	3rd
	7	9	1.90	steady	ease	ease	2.40	unp
	8	10	3.10	firm	steady	firm	2.50	unp
	9	9	3.40	firm	ease	firm	3.30	3rd
	10	14	4.50	firm	steady	firm	3.40	2nd

Coffs Harbour	1	12	5.00	firm	firm	firm	3.70	1st
16.12.23	2	11	3.80	ease	steady	ease	4.60	unp
	3	9	3.10	ease	ease	firm	2.70	unp
	4	11	3.50	steady	firm	firm	2.90	unp
	5	11	3.80	firm	ease	firm	3.50	3rd
	6	14	4.50	firm	ease	ease	5.50	unp
	6	14	6.00	steady	steady	firm	5.50	unp

Colac	1	10	2.30	steady	ease	firm	1.80	1st
16.12.23	2	10	1.60	steady	steady	ease	1.80	1st
	3	11	2.80	steady	steady	firm	2.40	2nd
	4	10	4.60	steady	firm	firm	3.20	3rd
	5	11	2.50	steady	steady	ease	2.80	unp
	6	10	3.30	ease	firm	firm	3.10	1st
	7	11	4.20	steady	firm	ease	4.20	unp
	8	9	3.10	steady	ease	ease	4.00	1st

Darwin	1	5	1.90	ease	steady	firm	1.80	1st
16.12.23	2	8	2.30	steady	ease	firm	2.00	1st
	3	8	2.70	steady	firm	firm	2.20	1st
	4	7	3.70	steady	ease	firm	3.60	unp
	5	9	4.00	steady	firm	firm	2.70	2nd
	6	7	1.30	steady	firm	firm	1.15	1st

30m - the odds available at 30 minutes before race start.

15m - the price movement between the odds available at the 15m compared to the 30m mark.

5m - the price movement between the odds available at the 5m compared to the 15m mark.

sp - the price movement between the starting price compared to the 5m mark.

(to be continued)

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

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