Wizard Daily Report and Research - Saturday, 23 December 2023.
Betting Markets (part 5)
Betting Markets - Firmed, Steady, Eased (day 3)
Today we continue the analysis of betting market moves.
Here, presenting the data from Monday, December 18, and then aggregating the data from the three days so far covered.
We are looking at the odds available at two time points during betting and at the end point of betting, the starting price.
The two time points are at 15 minutes from race start, and at 5 minutes from race start.
At the 15m mark we are comparing the odds available at the 30 minutes mark with those at 15 minutes.
At the 5m mark we are comparing the odds available at the 15 minutes mark with those at 5 minutes.
The 15 minute and 5 minute marks can be viewed as decision points; to bet or not bet, at that particular time.
At both these time points we can see if the odds are firming, steady, or easing.
(The firming relates to a point in time. The price offered at 15 minutes before race start is being compared to that at 30 minutes. It does not account for the situation where a horse might have firmed during this 30m-15m time period, and then eased back to its 30 minute quote by the time the 15 minutes price was noted. This interval firming can happen, of course, but it is not a frequent occurrence and does not invalidate the overall pattern of firming transactions shown here.)
The following table provides an insight into the betting market dynamics across the Monday meetings.
Table 1 Market movements at 15m and 5m before race start firming, steady, easing.
| Race day | Starters | Firmed | Firmed | Steady | Eased | Steady | Firmed | Steady | Eased | Eased | Firmed | Steady | Eased |
| | | at 15m | at sp | at sp | at sp | at 15m | at sp | at sp | at sp | at 15m | at sp | at sp | at sp |
| Monday | | fr 30m | fr 15m | fr 15m | fr 15m | fr 30m | fr 15m | fr 15m | fr 15m | fr 30m | fr 15m | fr 15m | fr 15m |
| 18/12/2023 | 128 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 82 | 20 | 8 | 54 | 32 | 10 | 3 | 19 |
| | 128 | 11% | 43% | 22% | 36% | 64% | 24% | 10% | 66% | 25% | 31% | 9% | 59% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Race day | Starters | Firmed | Firmed | Steady | Eased | Steady | Firmed | Steady | Eased | Eased | Firmed | Steady | Eased |
| | | at 5m | at sp | at sp | at sp | at 5m | at sp | at sp | at sp | at 5m | at sp | at sp | at sp |
| Monday | | fr 15m | fr 5m | fr 5m | fr 5m | fr 15m | fr 5m | fr 5m | fr 5m | fr 15m | fr 5m | fr 5m | fr 5m |
| 18/12/2023 | 128 | 28 | 12 | 2 | 14 | 42 | 11 | 8 | 23 | 58 | 10 | 6 | 42 |
| | 128 | 22% | 43% | 7% | 50% | 33% | 26% | 19% | 55% | 45% | 17% | 10% | 72% |
Starter the number of runners in the races.
Firmed at 15m fr 30m number and percentage of runners that were a shorter price at 15m than at 30m.
Firmed at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were a shorter price at SP than at 15m.
Steady at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were the same odds at SP and 15m.
Eased at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were a longer price at SP than at 15m
Steady at 15m fr 30m number and percentage of runners that were the same odds at 15m and 30m.
Firmed at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were a shorter price at SP than at 15m.
Steady at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were the same odds at SP and 15m.
Eased at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were a longer price at SP than at 15m
Eased at 15m fr 30m number and percentage of runners that were at longer odds at 15m than at 30m.
Firmed at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were a shorter price at SP than at 15m.
Steady at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were the same odds at SP and 15m.
Eased at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were a longer price at SP than at 15m
The same analysis has been done between the 15 minute mark and 5 minutes before race start time.
In the following table I have aggregated the data from the first three days, and presented the percentages appropriate to each situation.
Table 2 Aggregated market movements at 15m and 5m before race start firming, steady, easing.
| at 15m from 30m | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Starters | Firmed | Firmed | Steady | Eased | Steady | Firmed | Steady | Eased | Eased | Firmed | Steady | Eased |
| | | at 15m | at sp | at sp | at sp | at 15m | at sp | at sp | at sp | at 15m | at sp | at sp | at sp |
| | | fr 30m | fr 15m | fr 15m | fr 15m | fr 30m | fr 15m | fr 15m | fr 15m | fr 30m | fr 15m | fr 15m | fr 15m |
| 16.12.23 | 1146 | 14% | 38% | 13% | 49% | 65% | 27% | 14% | 59% | 21% | 29% | 15% | 56% |
| 17.12.23 | 658 | 13% | 36% | 9% | 55% | 71% | 27% | 12% | 61% | 15% | 22% | 12% | 66% |
| 18.12.23 | 128 | 11% | 43% | 22% | 36% | 64% | 24% | 10% | 66% | 25% | 31% | 9% | 59% |
| Total | 1932 | 14% | 38% | 12% | 50% | 67% | 27% | 13% | 60% | 19% | 28% | 13% | 59% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| at 5m from 15m | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | Starters | Firmed | Firmed | Steady | Eased | Steady | Firmed | Steady | Eased | Eased | Firmed | Steady | Eased |
| | | at 5m | at sp | at sp | at sp | at 5m | at sp | at sp | at sp | at 5m | at sp | at sp | at sp |
| | | fr 15m | fr 5m | fr 5m | fr 5m | fr 15m | fr 5m | fr 5m | fr 5m | fr 15m | fr 5m | fr 5m | fr 5m |
| 16.12.23 | 1146 | 23% | 39% | 17% | 44% | 33% | 28% | 21% | 51% | 43% | 24% | 17% | 59% |
| 17.12.23 | 658 | 20% | 44% | 20% | 36% | 37% | 27% | 18% | 55% | 43% | 19% | 13% | 68% |
| 18.12.23 | 128 | 22% | 43% | 7% | 50% | 33% | 26% | 19% | 55% | 45% | 17% | 10% | 72% |
| Total | 1932 | 22% | 41% | 17% | 42% | 35% | 27% | 20% | 53% | 43% | 22% | 15% | 63% |
Looking at table 2 we can see the pattern of firming, easing, and holding steady has not really varied across the three days. More days to be added with tracking the race favourite.
(to be continued)
Warren - Wiz-Ed
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Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com