Wizard Daily Report and Research - Sunday, 26 November 2023.

• The Distance Factor - continued.
• Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook. Enhanced.

Better betting - Specialise - Distance Factor

Today we continue a discussion of the distance ability of a horse, a key area for investigation in form analysis with a look at the different distance ranges.

The Main Distances

1000 metres:  Races run over these very short distances can be unreliable betting mediums. Quite often the class of the older horses engaged is more suited to the outside tracks than the metropolitan courses.

In addition, weight, the fundamental factor in our quantitative analysis plays a less significant role over these very short courses. The longer the journey, the greater the impact of the handicap weight on the horse and the more reliable will be our quantitative predictions. Other factors tend to make these short races even less attractive as betting propositions.

For example, the fields are often large and interference is common as riders scramble for an in-running position. A check in such a short race can eliminates a horse's winning chance.

Also, a number of natural front runners could contest the same race. An otherwise sound selection could easily lose the race as a result of pressure from other front runners. In addition, is not uncommon to find several horses resuming from a spell contesting one of these races and if no reliable barrier trial form is available fitness assessment can be clouded.

However, there are some occasions when 1000m events can be reliable betting options. If, for example, it is a field of not more than (say) 12 runners, with proven short course performers and no preponderance of front runners then it may provide a suitable betting medium.

An examination of racing records will show that there are some horses that even have difficulty in staying a 1000m. These horses lack stamina and would be better suited over 900m on country or provincial tracks.

The 1000m specialist is generally easily recognizable from the formguide. Its performance history will record successes at 1000m, but when it contests the longer sprints its formguide will show that it "wilts" in the last 100m and is unable to win over the more testing 1200m distance in a truly run race.

What you may also find is that some gallopers who are essentially 1000m horses may be able to run 1200m againt weaker provincial or country class yet are unable to run past 1000m in the city.

Three year old gallopers often perform well in these short races against the older horses for their early speed has not been dissipated through over-racing and the stamina that often accompanies increasing age is not so essential.

1200 metres:  This is the most common of the sprint distances. Naturally it provides a more searching test for the racehorse than does the 1000m sprint.

Over the distance of 1200m, weight plays a greater part in determining the final outcome of the race and we can have more confidence in the relevance of our quantitative analysis.

The 1200m tends to be the distance over which major Group 1 sprints are conducted, for all age groups. There are also significant Group 1 races at 1000m and over distances between 1300m and 1400m, but they tend to be the exceptions for the shorter course sprinters.

1400 metres:  Most horses capable of scoring over 1200m can handle a sprint over 1400m, particularly on a less testing course.

However, some runners find that a truly run 1400m race is beyond their powers of endurance. This galloper will quite often run places at 1400m but will fail to outstay the eventual winner over that last 100 or 200 metres.

Of course, some horses are specialists at 1400m and find 1200m short of their best. These gallopers are usually strongly built types who like the speed to be on in a race all the way. Their greatest asset is the ability to keep on going when their rivals are getting weary.

1600 metres:  This is the most testing of the sprint distances. Here real stamina, as well as speed, is demanded of the horse. Many horses capable of winning at 1200m find a truly run 1600m race quite beyond their distance ability.

Some horses are specialist "milers". They invariably run their best races at this distance. As this type of horse matures it is often capable of performing successfully over middle distances.

The 1600m is an exacting test when the race is truly run. That is why it is not uncommon to see a proven 2000m horse prevail in the major 1600m Group races, such as the Epsom and Doncaster.

2000 metres: The 2000m route is the most common middle distance race. In middle distance races the successful runner requires stamina, endurance, fitness and speed. The plodding type of stayer is less likely to prevail in a 2000m race than in a 2400m race. Several key Group 1 races for 3yo gallopers are run over this trip.

2400 metres: At distances of 2400m and beyond the horse must possess abundant stamina and powers of endurance and be in solid race-winning condition. This becomes even more important as the horse is asked to carry higher weights over these testing distances. This is the distance over which the 3yo classic races (Derby, Oaks) are run, though it is noted that some are run at 2500m because of track configuration. 

Jockeys also play an important part in determining the winner of these staying events, with a good judge of pace and tactics a big advantage to a horse. Whilst you will find 2000m horses who are capable of winning at 2400m given the right conditions, you will find that "true" 2400m horse is less likely to win at 2000m at any time other than early in a campaign when they are still relatively fresh.

Melbourne top 20 in 2022-2023 Stats for Distance Ranges

Today, looking at the performance of the top 20 trainers on Melbourne metropolitan tracks in the last season across seven distance ranges, from the sprinter to the stayer. These stats cover the past 10 years for all runners in the distance range with a starting price of 10/1 or less.

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook. Enhanced.

Today the Wizard Trainers Notebook re-examine trainers ranked 1 to 20 on the South Australian metropolitan tracks in the 2022-2023 racing season.

What is different about this listing is that I have identified those form factors that not only have an impact value on 1.3 but also show a win strike rate of 27% or more and a profit on turnover of 10% or more. This is obviously a more significant level of performance.

As before, I have broken down the overall stats into age groups (2yo, 3yo, 4yo and older) as there can be a difference in how these various age groups are prepared and perform. Also, I have limited the analysis to only those runs that were at odds of 10/1 or less, thereby removing the noise created by the longer odds runs which are really of no relevance in this exercise.

Note: It is possible to have more than one entry for a single factor. For example, the stable may have outperformed when backing up both within 8-14 days and 30-60 days.

Because the data is drawn from the Wizards national database, the form factors will be the same for trainers when they appear in the top trainer list in more than one state.

In the following listing those areas in which the trainer had a 1.3 impact value, and a win strike rate of 27% or better, and a positive return on investment of 10% more are highlighted in red. 

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

                                     Wizard - Trainer's Notebook - Trainers ranked 1 to 20 on the Adelaide 2022-2023 metropolitan premiership table.