Wizard Daily Report and Research - Friday, 10 November 2023
- This jockey - I wonder how ???
- Research Trainers Key factors.
- Research - Australian Trainers Reporting on the top trainers around Australia.
This jockey - I wonder how ???
How often when analysing a race have you asked the question - I wonder how this jockey performs with this stable?
Wizard Plus provides this answer, and many others, in the wide range of daily reports produced for each meeting covered metropolitan, provincial, and country.
Looking at the Group 1 Champion Stakes at Flemington tomorrow, we can answer this type of question quickly and accurately.
Question:
How good has been the partnership between Ben Allen and trainer Enver Jusufovic in the past year? The answer is, 4 wins from 8 rides.
| | Jockey Stats | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Last 12 months, 15 years | Trainer | Horse | Metro | Group 1 Last 15y |
| Tab | Jockey | Wins | Sts | Win% | Wins | Sts | Win% | Wins | Sts | Win% | Wins | Sts | Win% |
| 1 | Jamie Kah | 1 | 4 | 25 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 44 | 282 | 15.6 | 9 | 137 | 6.6 |
| 2 | Kerrin McEvoy | 2 | 37 | 5.4 | 4 | 9 | 44.4 | 43 | 522 | 8.2 | 60 | 568 | 10.6 |
| 3 | Billy Egan | 5 | 23 | 21.7 | 2 | 3 | 66.7 | 23 | 185 | 12.4 | 1 | 33 | 3 |
| 4 | Jamie Spencer | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 2.7 |
| 5 | Ben Melham | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 259 | 12 | 20 | 233 | 8.6 |
| 6 | Ben Allen | 4 | 8 | 50 | 3 | 7 | 42.9 | 13 | 133 | 9.8 | 1 | 54 | 1.9 |
| 7 | Blake Shinn | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 68 | 404 | 16.8 | 19 | 319 | 6 |
| 8 | Michael Dee | 6 | 58 | 10.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 44 | 358 | 12.3 | 11 | 150 | 7.3 |
| 9 | Damien Oliver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 42 | 344 | 12.2 | 47 | 516 | 9.1 |
| 10 | James McDonald | 45 | 272 | 16.5 | 1 | 3 | 33.3 | 95 | 516 | 18.4 | 79 | 513 | 15.4 |
| 11 | Mark Zahra | 2 | 2 | 100 | 2 | 2 | 100 | 34 | 213 | 16 | 25 | 321 | 7.8 |
Then one click gives us the details of those 4 wins:
| Course | Date | Dist | Sot | Class | St | Marg | Wgt | BP | Trainer | Horse | GRP |
| MVAL | 9/09/2023 | 1600 | g | WFA-G2 | 13 | 0.1 | 59 | 10 | E Jusufovic | Pinstriped | 2 |
| FLEM | 20/05/2023 | 1100 | s | BM-90 | 16 | 0.5 | 56 | 6 | E Jusufovic | Vongole | |
| FLEM | 20/05/2023 | 1600 | s | BM-100 | 11 | 2 | 58.5 | 6 | E Jusufovic | Pinstriped | |
| SANL | 15/04/2023 | 1600 | s | SW&P | 12 | 3.3 | 60 | 2 | E Jusufovic | Pinstriped | |
Question:
Over the last year, which rider has been the most successful in Group 1 races, aside from James Mc Donald?
The answer is in the table below. Two share that honour, Michael Dee and Mark Zahra, both with 4 Group 1 wins in the last 12 months. (Again, a simple click will give you the details.)
| | Group races | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Last 12 months | Group 1 | Group 2 | Group 3 | Listed | Total |
| Tab | Jockey | Wins | Sts | Win% | Wins | Sts | Win% | Wins | Sts | Win% | Wins | Sts | Win% | Wins | Sts | Win% |
| 1 | Jamie Kah | 1 | 18 | 5.6 | 2 | 23 | 8.7 | 5 | 29 | 17.2 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 8 | 98 | 8.2 |
| 2 | Kerrin McEvoy | 0 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 3 | 47 | 6.4 | 4 | 31 | 12.9 | 7 | 135 | 5.2 |
| 3 | Billy Egan | 1 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 21.4 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 8 | 56 | 14.3 |
| 4 | Jamie Spencer | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
| 5 | Ben Melham | 3 | 17 | 17.6 | 4 | 22 | 18.2 | 4 | 29 | 13.8 | 6 | 31 | 19.4 | 17 | 99 | 17.2 |
| 6 | Ben Allen | 0 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 33.3 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9.1 | 2 | 35 | 5.7 |
| 7 | Blake Shinn | 1 | 24 | 4.2 | 2 | 28 | 7.1 | 8 | 44 | 18.2 | 5 | 32 | 15.6 | 16 | 128 | 12.5 |
| 8 | Michael Dee | 4 | 30 | 13.3 | 4 | 29 | 13.8 | 3 | 43 | 7 | 5 | 48 | 10.4 | 16 | 150 | 10.7 |
| 9 | Damien Oliver | 2 | 24 | 8.3 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 9.7 | 2 | 27 | 7.4 | 7 | 103 | 6.8 |
| 10 | James McDonald | 9 | 43 | 20.9 | 8 | 36 | 22.2 | 10 | 56 | 17.9 | 4 | 35 | 11.4 | 31 | 170 | 18.2 |
| 11 | Mark Zahra | 4 | 28 | 14.3 | 5 | 28 | 17.9 | 4 | 29 | 13.8 | 4 | 27 | 14.8 | 17 | 112 | 15.2 |
Question:
With respect to a jockeys long term Group 1 record, how have they performed over the last 15 years. Here, James McDonald is the clear leader as you can see from the first table above, and if you want his more recent details just one click does the trick, showing his last 15 rides and the previous 5 wins.
| Course | Date | Dist | Sot | Class | St | Fin | Marg | Wgt | BP | Trainer | Horse | GRP |
| FLEM | 7/11/2023 | 3200 | g | GROUP1 | 23 | 17 | 23.3 | 58.5 | 2 | C Maher & D Eustace | Gold Trip | 1 |
| | Melbourne Cup (G1) | | |
| FLEM | 4/11/2023 | 1600 | g | FM-G1 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 57 | 8 | C J Waller | Atishu | 1 |
| | Empire Rose Stakes (G1) | | |
| FLEM | 4/11/2023 | 1200 | g | 3YO-G1 | 16 | 3 | 1.4 | 57 | 2 | C J Waller | Shinzo | 1 |
| | Coolmore Stud Stakes (G1) | | |
| FLEM | 4/11/2023 | 2500 | g | 3YO-G1 | 16 | 1 | 0.1 | 57 | 5 | C J Waller | Riff Rocket | 1 |
| | Victoria Derby (G1) | | |
| MVAL | 28/10/2023 | 2040 | g | WFA-G1 | 12 | 1 | 0.1 | 59 | 7 | C S Shum | Romantic Warrior | 1 |
| | Cox Plate (G1) | | |
| MVAL | 28/10/2023 | 1200 | g | WFA-G1 | 6 | 2 | 3.3 | 56.5 | 5 | C Maher & D Eustace | I Am Me | 1 |
| | Manikato Stakes (G1) | | |
| CAUL | 21/10/2023 | 2400 | g | GROUP1 | 18 | 17 | 14.3 | 54 | 15 | C J Waller | Francesco Guardi | 1 |
| | Caulfield Cup (G1) | | |
| RAND | 14/10/2023 | 1600 | g | WFA-G1 | 14 | 1 | 2.7 | 57 | 2 | C J Waller | Fangirl | 1 |
| | King Charles Ill Stakes (G1) | | |
| FLEM | 7/10/2023 | 2000 | g | SWP-G1 | 16 | 4 | 3.9 | 59 | 10 | C S Shum | Romantic Warrior | 1 |
| | Turnbull Stakes (G1) | | |
| RAND | 30/09/2023 | 1600 | g | 3F-GP1 | 12 | 10 | 6.7 | 56 | 11 | J G Sargent | Unique Ambition | 1 |
| | Flight Stakes (G1) | | |
| RAND | 30/09/2023 | 1600 | g | GROUP1 | 18 | 18 | 7.4 | 55.5 | 12 | C J Waller | Going Global | 1 |
| | Epsom Handicap (G1) | | |
| RAND | 19/08/2023 | 1400 | s | WFA-G1 | 16 | 1 | 0.2 | 57 | 10 | C J Waller | Fangirl | 1 |
| | Winx Stakes (G1) | | |
| EFRM | 10/06/2023 | 1400 | g | GROUP1 | 18 | 10 | 4.5 | 56 | 11 | James Cummings | Vilana | 1 |
| | Stradbroke Handicap (G1) | | |
| EFRM | 10/06/2023 | 1600 | g | 2YO-G1 | 17 | 3 | 2.3 | 57 | 6 | C J Waller | Tannhauser | 1 |
| | J.J. Atkins (G1) | | |
| EFRM | 3/06/2023 | 2200 | g | 3F-GP1 | 18 | 18 | 99 | 56.5 | 15 | C J Waller | Super Chilled | 1 |
| | Queensland Oaks (G1) | | |
| EFRM | 27/05/2023 | 2400 | g | 3YO-G1 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 57 | 4 | C J Waller | Kovalica | 1 |
| | Queensland Derby (G1) | | |
| HKST | 30/04/2023 | 2000 | g | GROUP1 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 57 | 4 | C S Shum | Romantic Warrior | 1 |
| | The QEll Cup (Turf) | | |
| ROSE | 18/03/2023 | 1500 | g | WFA-G1 | 11 | 1 | 0.4 | 59 | 11 | James Cummings | Anamoe | 1 |
| | George Ryder Stakes (G1) | | |
| RAND | 25/02/2023 | 1600 | g | WFA-G1 | 12 | 1 | 1.3 | 59 | 3 | James Cummings | Anamoe | 1 |
| | Chipping Norton Stakes (G1) | | |
| HKST | 11/12/2022 | 2000 | g | WFA-G1 | 12 | 1 | 4.5 | 57 | 7 | C S Shum | Romantic Warrior | 1 |
| | The Longines Hong Kong Cup (Turf) | | |
Wizard Plus provides a wealth of information in its Stats and Facts reports, as well as its dedicated jockey and trainer reports. It's all there!
Research Trainers Key Factors (NSW metropolitan)
Today we continue an examination of the most successful trainers in Australia and zero in on the key form factors we consider when assessing the claims of a runner they have in a race.
This article looks at the 2022-2023 trainers ranked 1 to 20 in the NSW metropolitan premiership table (Mark Newnham was omitted as he has relocated to Hong Kong), with Matthew Dunn added.
The key factor we will examine:
- Finish position at last start.
In the table below we show for each trainer the percentage of winners for each category and the Impact Value associated with that percentage.
An explanation of how the IV is calculated was provided in the Wizard Report on Wednesday 8 November, and can be accessed in the Wizard Daily Report Archive.
| Finish position last start | | | | | | | | |
| Trainers - NSW | | | | | | | | |
| | won | iv | 2-3rd | iv | 4-9th | iv | 10+ | iv |
| | | | | | | | | |
| Chris Waller | 19.6 | 1.4 | 17.7 | 1.3 | 11.4 | 0.8 | 6.6 | 0.5 |
| G Waterhouse, A Bott | 22.1 | 1.2 | 21.9 | 1.2 | 16.5 | 0.9 | 10.8 | 0.6 |
| James Cummings | 20.5 | 1.2 | 21.4 | 1.2 | 14.6 | 0.8 | 10.8 | 0.6 |
| C Maher, D Eustace | 21.6 | 1.2 | 23.4 | 1.3 | 15.0 | 0.8 | 9.8 | 0.5 |
| Bjorn Baker | 22.5 | 1.4 | 19.4 | 1.2 | 13.6 | 0.8 | 10.4 | 0.6 |
| Annabel Neasham | 19.3 | 1.2 | 19.8 | 1.2 | 14.0 | 0.9 | 10.9 | 0.7 |
| Joseph Pride | 20.2 | 1.4 | 18.3 | 1.2 | 12.3 | 0.8 | 7.8 | 0.5 |
| M, W, J Hawkes | 22.0 | 1.3 | 21.6 | 1.3 | 12.5 | 0.8 | 11.6 | 0.7 |
| G Ryan, S Alexiou | 20.8 | 1.3 | 18.1 | 1.1 | 15.2 | 0.9 | 7.2 | 0.4 |
| John O'Shea | 22.3 | 1.3 | 20.5 | 1.2 | 13.9 | 0.8 | 8.7 | 0.5 |
| Peter, Paul Snowden | 19.2 | 1.2 | 19.7 | 1.2 | 13.1 | 0.8 | 11.1 | 0.7 |
| Kris Lees | 19.9 | 1.3 | 20.5 | 1.3 | 13.1 | 0.8 | 7.4 | 0.5 |
| Matthew Smith | 16.8 | 1.4 | 17.4 | 1.5 | 9.1 | 0.8 | 6.1 | 0.5 |
| Brad Widdup | 16.8 | 1.1 | 17.1 | 1.1 | 14.1 | 0.9 | 9.4 | 0.6 |
| John Sargent | 15.9 | 1.3 | 17.3 | 1.4 | 10.1 | 0.8 | 8.0 | 0.6 |
| David Payne | 13.7 | 1.3 | 14.9 | 1.5 | 8.1 | 0.8 | 7.4 | 0.7 |
| Michael Freedman | *22.2 | 1.3 | *15.6 | 0.9 | 17.2 | 1.0 | **5.3 | 0.3 |
| John Thompson | 13.7 | 1.1 | 18.9 | 1.5 | 10.7 | 0.8 | 7.1 | 0.6 |
| Nathan Doyle | 23.0 | 1.3 | 19.7 | 1.1 | 16.2 | 0.9 | 8.4 | 0.5 |
| Matthew Dunn | 18.7 | 1.2 | 20.4 | 1.3 | 13.9 | 0.9 | 11.4 | 0.7 |
* fewer than 100 runners
** fewer than 50 runners
Again, whilst there are some interesting variations in the table, the takeaway from this analysis is how important good recent form is in maximizing the strike rate for trainers across the board. The trainers at the top of the table, in particular, are good examples.
Wizard Research - Australian trainers analysed - (Western Australia - seasons comparison)
Today we look at the top trainers on Western Australian metropolitan and provincial tracks, comparing results for the full 2022-2023 season to the current 2023-2024 season. (Note: Stats for WA country tracks have been omitted as the number of wins and starts in the current season is just too small for any meaningful comparison.)
| | WA Trainers | | | | | | | | |
| | Season 2022-2023 | | Current 2023-2024 | | | Season 2022-2023 | | Current 2023-2024 | |
| | Metropolitan | | Metropolitan | | | Provincial | | Provincial | |
| | Trainer | win% | Trainer | win% | | Trainer | win% | Trainer | win% |
| 1 | Neville Parnham | 9.5 | Grant, Alana Williams | 27.4 | | Adam Durrant | 18.0 | Peter Fernie | 15.7 |
| 2 | Simon A Miller | 17.2 | Neville Parnham | 8.4 | | Daniel, Ben Pearce | 22.1 | Grant, Alana Williams | 24.5 |
| 3 | Adam Durrant | 12.6 | Simon A Miller | 16.9 | | Peter Fernie | 15.6 | Adam Durrant | 17.9 |
| 4 | Daniel Morton | 18.0 | Sean, Jake Casey | 14.8 | | Steve Wolfe | 17.9 | Daniel, Ben Pearce | 11.2 |
| 5 | Steve Wolfe | 13.9 | Dion Luciani | 17.9 | | Roy Rogers | 13.7 | Takahide Ikenushi | 43.8 |
| 6 | Daniel, Ben Pearce | 11.9 | Darren McAuliffe | 13.5 | | David Harrison | 19.8 | Ashley Maley | 17.1 |
| 7 | Grant, Alana Williams | 16.4 | Chris, Michael Gangemi | 12.3 | | Neville Parnham | 12.9 | David Harrison | 14.9 |
| 8 | David Harrison | 11.3 | Trevor Andrews | 22.2 | | Grant, Alana Williams | 22.9 | Peter Fernie | 40.0 |
| 9 | Sean, Jake Casey | 15.3 | Luke Fernie | 12.8 | | Daniel Morton | 20.7 | Jim Taylor | 30.0 |
| 10 | Dion Luciani | 22.0 | Steve Wolfe | 10.0 | | Brett Pope | 10.8 | Daniel Morton | 20.7 |
| 11 | Luke Fernie | 11.6 | David Harrison | 9.0 | | Ashley Maley | 9.9 | Luke Fernie | 12.8 |
| 12 | Darren McAuliffe | 14.8 | Ross Price | 45.5 | | Helen Harding | 5.7 | Jordan Rolfe | 40.0 |
| 13 | Chris, Michael Gangemi | 9.4 | Summer Dickson | 17.2 | | Josh Brown | 19.2 | Susan Olive | 26.7 |
| 14 | Colin Webster | 14.3 | Meryl Hayley | 21.1 | | Jim Taylor | 18.2 | Aaron Pateman | 25.0 |
| 15 | Michael Grantham | 14.6 | Donna Riordan | 21.1 | | Simon A Miller | 24.1 | Trevor Andrews | 25.0 |
| 16 | Stephen Miller | 12.5 | Stefan Vahala | 19.0 | | Darryn Pateman | 13.5 | Darryn Pateman | 21.1 |
| 17 | Ashley Maley | 7.6 | Colin Webster | 16.7 | | Julia Martin | 21.1 | Willie Parker | 18.2 |
| 18 | Trevor Andrews | 14.6 | Peter Fernie | 13.8 | | Carey Martin | 15.4 | Trevor Tasker | 12.8 |
| 19 | Mitchell Pateman | 17.9 | Daniel, Ben Pearce | 7.4 | | Michael Grantham | 12.8 | Helen Harding | 9.1 |
| 20 | Michael Lane | 13.0 | Daniel Morton | 5.7 | | Tiamna Robertson | 12.2 | Mitchell Pateman | 13.6 |