Wizard Daily Report and Research - Monday, 8 April 2024.
- Jockey Snapshot - Neil Farley
- Wizard Ratings Results for week ending April 7
Jockey Snapshot - Neil Farley
It was a 'black letter' day for Neil Farley at Caulfield last Saturday when he rode his first Stakes winner, Gold Wolf (David & Coral Feek trained) in the Listed Galilee Series Final.
Neil hails from the United Kingdom where he rode professionally between 2010 and 2017. Like many jockeys he did not have an abundance of opportunities. During that period he rode in 1,676 races and had 127 winners, a strike rate of 7.6%. This lack of opportunity caused Neil to consider Australia as an option and he decided to test the waters on a working holiday.
Neil's first significant break was linking up with Ballarat-based ex-Brit Archie Alexander. Since settling in at Ballarat he has ridden in 2,415 races, ridden 206 winners, resulting in an overall strike rate of 8.0%, despite being injured and off the scene for 6 months in 2023. He is currently enjoying his best ever season and is on 46 Victorian country winners (ranking 7th in that premiership).
During the 2022-2023 season and the current season his 939 rides broken down by odds range look like:
Odds-on: 1 ride (0.001%) 1 win 100% win rate
$2.00 - $5.90 161 rides (17.2%) 39 wins 24.1% strike rate
$6.00 - $9.90 205 rides (22.0%) 21 wins 10.2% strike rate
$10.00 - $19.90 180 rides (19.0%) 10 wins 5.6% strike rate
$20.00 and longer 392 rides (41.7%) 9 wins 2.3% strike rate
What is noteworthy about his record is that in the $2.00 to $5.90 odds range his rides deliver a flat stake profit of 3.0% on turnover. That is an achievement for any jockey.
When riding Gold Wolf last Saturday, Neil showed an absolute determination to win the race, riding hard from at least the 600m and never giving up. There is a lot to like in that attitude!
Wizard Ratings Report week ending Sunday, April 7
Overall, the result last week for Wrat was 28.5% (95 winners from 332 races.)
From Monday to Sunday the daily results were: (23.0%, 30.0%, 25.0%, 22.0%, 16.0%, 30.0%, 44.0%).
A few of the more notable double-figure top-rated (100 pointer) winners last week were:
| Course | Date | Race | Tab | Horse | SP odds | Rating |
| EAGLE FARM | 6/04/2024 | 8 | 6 | Stuck With You | $17.00 | Whcp and Wexpk |
| ASCOT | 3/04/2024 | 3 | 7 | Star Power | $14.00 | Whcp |
| CAULFIELD | 6/04/2024 | 3 | 5 | Oracle Son | $17.00 | Wexpk |
| GERALDTON | 7/04/2024 | 3 | 6 | The Collector | $15.00 | Wexpk |
The full results summary follows:
| Mon 01.04.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | SOT | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe |
| GRAFTON | g4 | - - - - | 1 3 - - | 2 1 1 - | 2 1 2. - | 3 2 - - | - 3. - - | - - 3. 1 | - 2 - - | | | 1 2 1 1 |
| IPSWICH | s6s5 | 2 2 2 - | - - - - | - 3. - 3 | - - 3 - | 3 2 - - | - 2 - 1 | 1 1 - - | | | | 1 1 0 1 |
| OAKBANK | g4 | 1 1 2 1 | 1 1 3 - | - - - - | - 2 3. - | 1 1 2 1. | - - - - | - - - 3. | | | | 3 3 0 2. |
| SANDOWN-LAKESIDE | g4 | - - - - | 1 1 1 - | 1 2 1 1. | - - 3 1 | 1 - 3. - | 2 1 - - | - - - - | | | | 3 2 2 2. |
| WARWICK FARM | g4 | - 3 3 2. | - - - - | 2 2 - - | - - - - | - - 3 1 | 2 3 - 2 | - 3 3 - | | | | 0 0 0 1 |
| YORK | g4 | - - - - | 2 1 1 2 | 1 1 - 2 | 2 1 1 - | 2 1 - - | 3 3 - - | 1 3. - 3. | 2 3 1 3. | | | 2 4 3 0 |
| Tue 02.04.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | w m h e |
| GEELONG | h8 | - - - - | - - - - | 2 3 3 - | 1 2 1. 2 | 1 1 3 3 | 2 2 2 2 | 1 3 - - | 2 2 2 3. | | | 3 1 1. 0 |
| MOREE | g4 | - - 3. 2. | 2 - - 3 | 1 1 - 1 | - - - - | - - - - | 1 1 2. - | - - - 2 | | | | 2 2 0 1 |
| TAREE | s7h8 | 1 2 2 - | 3 3 3. - | - - - - | 1 1 - 1 | 1 3 - - | 1 1 - - | - - - - | | | | 4 2 0 1 |
| WARWICK | s5g4 | - - - 2 | 3 3 - 3 | 3 2 2 1 | 3 - - 1 | 3 - 3. - | - - 2 1 | - - - 3 | 3 - - - | | | 0 0 0 3 |
| Wed 03.04.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | w m h e |
| ASCOT | g4 | 2 2 2. 1 | - 2 2 1 | 3 - 1 - | - 2 2. - | - 3 3. 3 | - - - 3 | 3 - - - | | | | 0 0 1 2 |
| BALLARAT | s7s6 | 1 1 1 3 | 1 1 2 2 | 2 1 1 1 | 2 1 2 1 | 1 1 2 - | - 1. - 1 | - - - 1. | 3 2 - - | | | 3 6. 2 4. |
| DOOMBEN | s6g4 | 1 1 - - | 2 3 2 - | - 3 - 2 | 1 1 3. - | 1 - - - | - - - 3 | 1 - - 2 | 2 - 1 2 | 2 - - - | - - - - | 4 2 1 0 |
| MURRAY BRIDGE | g4 | 2 3 1 - | 1 2 2 3 | 2 3 1 2. | 3 - 1 2. | 1 3 1 - | 3 - 3 1. | 1 1 3 2. | | | | 3 1 4 1. |
| NEWCASTLE | s5g4 | 3 2 - 1. | - - - - | - - - 3. | 3 2 - - | 3 2 - - | - - - - | 2 1 1 1 | 2 - - - | | | 0 1 1 2. |
| Thu 04.04.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | w m h e |
| GOSFORD | s5h10 | 3 2 3 3 | 3 3 2 1 | 1 1 1 1 | 2 3 1 3 | | | | | | | 1 1 2 2 |
| PAKENHAM | s6 | - - - - | - - 3 - | - - - - | - - - - | - - - 1. | 3 - - - | - - 3 1 | 1 1 - - | | | 1 1 0 2. |
| PINJARRA SCARP | g4 | 2 1 1 3. | - - 2. - | - - - - | - - - - | 3 3. - - | - - - - | - - 3. - | | | | 0 1 1 0 |
| TOWNSVILLE | s5 | 1 2 - - | - - - 3 | 1 1 1 1 | 1 1 1. 3. | 1 2. 1. - | - - - - | 3 2 1 - | 3 1 1. - | | | 4 3 5. 1 |
| Fri 05.04.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | w m h e |
| BENALLA | g4 | 3 - - - | 3 2 2 3 | 3 - 1 3 | 2 2 1 3 | - - - - | - - 3 3. | - - - - | - - - 3 | | | 0 0 2 0 |
| CRANBOURNE | s5 | 2 1 3 2 | - 3 - - | 2 3 1 - | - - - - | 1 1 1 2 | 3 - - - | - - 3. - | - - - - | | | 1 2 2 0 |
| LAUNCESTON | s5g4 | 2 1 1. - | 1 1 - - | - - - - | 2 - 1 1 | 2 1 1 2 | 2 3 1. - | - - - - | 3 2 - 2. | | | 1 3 4. 1 |
| ROCKHAMPTON | s5h9 | 1 1 - - | - - - - | - - 2 2 | - 3 - 3 | 2 1 3 - | - 3 3. - | | | | | 1 2 0 0 |
| SAPPHIRE COAST | g4 | 1 1 1 2 | - 3. - - | - - - - | - - 2 - | 1 1 2 3 | - - - - | 1 2 2. - | 3 2 - - | | | 3 2 1 0 |
| Sat 06.04.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | w m h e |
| ASCOT | g4 | 1 3 3. - | - - - - | 1 1 - 3 | - 3 - 3. | 1 1 2 2. | 3 3. 3. - | - 2 - - | 3 2 - 3. | 1 1 - 2. | | 4 3 0 0 |
| AVOCA | s6 | 1 3 3 - | 2 2 1 - | 1 1 1 - | - - - - | - - - 2 | 2 - 1 1 | 1 1 2 3. | 2 2 2. - | - - - 1 | | 3 2 3 2 |
| CAULFIELD | s5 | 3 2 3 3 | - - - - | - - 2. 1. | 1 1 3 - | - - - - | 1 2 - - | - - - - | - 2 2 1. | - - - - | - - - - | 2 1 0 2. |
| COONABARABRAN | h9h8 | 2 1 - - | - - - - | - - 2 - | 2 3. 1 2 | 1 - 1 - | - - - - | | | | | 1 1 2 0 |
| EAGLE FARM | s6 | 3 - - - | 1 1 - - | - - 3. 3. | 1 1 2 2. | - 3. 3 - | - - - - | 1 1 - - | 2 - 1. 1 | 3 2. 1 2. | 1 1 1. - | 4 4 3. 1 |
| GOLD COAST POLY | aq | 1 2 2 1 | - 3 - - | 1 1 1 2 | - - 1 1 | - 2 3. - | 1 2 1 2 | 1 1 - - | - - 2. - | - - - 1 | | 4 2 3 3 |
| MORPHETTVILLE PARKS | g4 | - - - 1 | 1 2 1 2 | - 2 3. 2. | 3 2 - - | - - - - | - 2 2 - | 1 2 1. - | - 3 3. - | - 3 2 - | | 2 0 2. 1 |
| NEWCASTLE | h9s7 | - 3. 3. 3. | 1 1 2 1 | 2 1 - 2 | 1 1 2 3 | - 2 - 2 | 3 1 2. - | 3 - 1. - | - 3 2. - | - - - - | | 2 4 1. 1 |
| PIONEER PARK | g | 3 2 - 2. | - 3 - 3. | - 3 - 3 | - - - 3 | 1 1 1 3 | 1 1 1 1 | 1 - 2 - | - - - - | | | 3 2 2 1 |
| RANDWICK | h10h8 | 1 1 1. 1 | 2 1 3 - | 3 - 1 2 | 3 - 3. - | - - 3 - | - - 3 3 | - - - - | - - - - | 1 1 1 1. | - - - - | 2 3 3. 2. |
| TOOWOOMBA | s7h9 | 1 1 2 1 | - - 3 1 | - - 3. - | 2 2 1 3. | - - - - | 2 3 2 - | 1 2 2 2 | | | | 2 1 1 2 |
| Sun 07.04.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | w m h e |
| BALLARAT | S6 | 3 3 1. 1 | - - - 3 | 1 1 1 3 | 1 2 2 - | 1 1 1 1 | 1 1 3 1 | 1 2. 2 2 | 1 2 1 - | 2 1 2 2. | | 6 4 4. 3 |
| DUBBO | s7 | 2 3 2 1 | - 3 3. 2. | 3 - - - | - - - 3 | 1 1 2. - | 1 1 1. - | - - - - | | | | 2 2 1. 1 |
| GERALDTON | g4 | 3 3. 3. 2. | 1 1 - 1 | - - - 1 | 2 1 2 2. | - - - - | 3 1 2 1 | - 2 2. 2. | 1 3 2 - | 3 - - - | | 2 3 0 3 |
| HOBART | s5s7 | 1 - - - | - - 2. - | 1 1 1 - | 3 2 - - | 1 3 - 2 | - - - - | - - - - | 1 2 1 2 | | | 4 1 2 0 |
| PIONEER PARK | g | 2 - - 1 | 1 1 1. 2 | 1 1 1 2. | 3 - - 3 | 1 1 2 3 | 3 - - - | 1 2 2 3 | 1 2 3 - | - - - 2 | | 5 3 2. 1 |
| PORT LINCOLN | g4 | 1 1 1. 2. | 1 1 - - | 2 1 1. 2 | 2 3 - 1 | - - - - | - - 2 - | 2 - 3 3 | - - 3. - | | | 2 3 2. 1 |
| SUNSHINE COAST POLY | aw | 1 1 1 1 | 1 1 1 3 | 3 2 2 1 | - - - - | 1 2 2. - | 1 1 3 - | - 2 - - | | | | 4 3 2 2 |
The tables show the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat (w), Wmod (m), Whcp (h), and Wexpk (e) in that order. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
For example, a cell entry of 1 2. 3 would read as:
.. 1 .. rated 1st (100 pointer) on Wrat
.. - .. not rated in the top three on Wmod
.. 2. .. rated equal 2nd on Whcp (the full stop after the numeric indicates it was rated equal 2nd)
.. 3 .. rated 3rd on Wexpk
As well as the results for individual races there a summary for each meeting which shows the number of winners for each of the Wizard and Wizard Plus ratings. An entry showing '4 3 0 2.' would be read as follows:
.. 4 .. 4 of the winners were rated 1st on Wrat
.. 3 .. 3 of the winners were rated 1st on Wmod
.. 0 .. no winner was rated 1st on Whcp
.. 2. .. 2 winners were rated 1st on Wexpk but at least one of these was an equal top-rater
With respect to equal-rated runners: This does not happen with Wrat as we have an algorithm that separates runners by adjusting the base ratings by career-record and form-related factors. The same procedure is applied with the Wmod, but not as extensively, and occasionally equal-rated horses could appear, but infrequently.
Where equal-rated runners are more common is in the ratings analysis that is basically pure weight handicapping, the Whcp and Wexpk analyses.
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com