Wizard Daily Report and Research Saturday, 6 April 2024.

• Trainer Profile of Brett Robb
• Wizard Ratings Results for Friday, April 5

Trainer Profile - Brett Robb

Brett "Snow" Robb was born into a racing family. His father, Rodney Robb, was a prominent NSW western districts trainer for more than 40 years. Brett learned his trade by initially working part time in the stable. Over time Brett took on a more active role.

By 2020 Brett and his partner Maddy Wright had relocated from Nyngan to Dubbo, and there they established the current permanent base for his stable over two locations: on-track in Dubbo and on a property outside Dubbo. The farm outside Dubbo plays an important role in the stable's operations. It gives the horses a chance to "be horses" in a natural environment as well as provide alternative conditioning opportunities in the form of trail rides, hill climbs, etc. The stable normally has around 30 horses in work at any one time and these are split between the two locations.

Brett made his mark on the country racing scene quickly. He trained the first winner under his own name when Amelia's Code won on August 10, 2020, and yet by 2022 he was named the Country Racing Trainer of the Year! Another highlight came soon after when Sizzle Minizzle won the rich 2023 Country Championships at Randwick.

To date the vast majority of the stable's runners compete on the country tracks, with few runners appearing in the city or on the provincial circuit.

Brett, Maddy, and his staff have done a great job in a short period of time, and from the "Watch and Wait" analysis that follows you can see they do know how to prepare and place their horses to advantage.

Brett Robb - Watch and Wait

With some trainers there are indicators that are especially worth noting. It is a matter of watching and waiting for the right conditions occur. It might be that the trainer out-performs with runners having their first start after a spell, or in sprint races rather than over longer distances, or backing up for a repeat win in a given time period. When these 'key metrics' are in play it is worthwhile paying particular attention to the runner.

Some key metrics for Brett Robb follow. 

Note: To date this is a stable that has raced 3yo and older horses. During last season and so far this season 85% of the stable's runners have been aged 4yo or older and the stats should be viewed in that context. The stats for 3yo's are insufficient to allow for confident analysis.

Runs from a spell

3rd up: 27.4% 1.2iv (odds range to $9.90)

2nd up: 26.4% 1.3iv (odds range $2.00 to $5.90)

Days since last run

8 14 days: 27.2% 1.2iv (odds range to $9.90)

60 179 days: 27.7% 1.2iv (odds range to $9.90)

8 14 days: 24.7% 1.2iv (odds range $2.00 to $5.90)

Days since last win

8 14 days: 34.1% 1.5iv (odds range to $9.90)

15 21 days: 38.6% 1.7iv (odds range to $9.90)

Finish position at last start

Won last start: 31.4% 1.3iv (odds range to $9.90)

Won last start: 26.2% 1.3iv (odds range $2.00 to $5.90)

Previous (last start) winning margin

0.1 3.0 lengths: 35.6% 1.0iv (odds range to $9.90

0.1 3 lengths: 30.0% 1.0iv (odds range $2.00 to $5.90)

All results listed were profitable on flat stakes and show the win percentage and the impact value for two odds ranges.

Wizard Plus connection

Brett Robb's stable outperforms when a runner is in the $2.00 to $5.90 odds range near the close of betting and is a featured runner in the Negatives category in the Wizard Plus Plus Panel. Since the stable commenced operations it has had a strike rate of 41.1% and shown a profit of 54% on turnover with this type of runner.

Brett Robb - Jockey combinations

The table below examines the trainer-jockey combinations under three conditions:

• When the horse is the Wrat 100 pointer and started at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
• When the horse runs as the race favourite at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
• When the horse starts at odds between $2.00 and $5.90

Note: The key rider for the stable is Clayton Gallagher who has been off the scene since being injured in a race fall on February 10 this year.

The statistics cover the stable's runners throughout Australia. 

The period covered is from 1 August 2022, so last season and the current season. (Older results for trainer-jockey combinations not really relevant.)

Wizard Ratings Report for the meetings on Friday, April 5

The following table shows the where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.

Header w m h e =  Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk

The table shows the where the winner of each race was rated by  Wrat (w), Wmod (m), Whcp (h), and Wexpk (e) in that order. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.

For example, a cell entry of 1 2. 3 would read as:

.. 1 .. rated 1st (100 pointer) on Wrat

.. - .. not rated in the top three on Wmod

.. 2. .. rated equal 2nd on Whcp (the full stop after the numeric indicates it was rated equal 2nd)

.. 3 .. rated 3rd on Wexpk

As well as the results for individual races there a summary for each meeting which shows the number of winners for each of the Wizard and Wizard Plus ratings. An entry showing '4 3 0 2.' would be read as follows:

.. 4 .. 4 of the winners were rated 1st on Wrat

.. 3 .. 3 of the winners were rated 1st on Wmod

.. 0 .. no winner was rated 1st on Whcp

.. 2. .. 2 winners were rated 1st on Wexpk but at least one of these was an equal top-rater

With respect to equal-rated runners: This does not happen with Wrat as we have an algorithm that separates runners by adjusting the base ratings by career-record and form-related factors. The same procedure is applied with the Wmod, but not as extensively, and occasionally equal-rated horses could appear, but infrequently.

Where equal-rated runners are more common is in the ratings analysis that is basically pure weight handicapping, the Whcp and Wexpk analyses.

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com