Wizard Daily Report and Research - Tuesday, 2 April 2024.
- Wizard Ratings Results for Monday, April 1
- Trainer Profile for Michael Freedman (NEW)
The following table shows the where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
| Mon 01.04.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | R9 | 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | | | w m h e |
| GRAFTON | g4 | - - - - | 1 3 - - | 2 1 1 - | 2 1 2. - | 3 2 - - | - 3. - - | - - 3. 1 | - 2 - - | | | 1 2 1 1 |
| IPSWICH | s6s5 | 2 2 2 - | - - - - | - 3. - 3 | - - 3 - | 3 2 - - | - 2 - 1 | 1 1 - - | | | | 1 1 0 1 |
| OAKBANK | g4 | 1 1 2 1 | 1 1 3 - | - - - - | - 2 3. - | 1 1 2 1. | - - - - | - - - 3. | | | | 3 3 0 2. |
| SANDOWN-LAKESIDE | g4 | - - - - | 1 1 1 - | 1 2 1 1. | - - 3 1 | 1 - 3. - | 2 1 - - | - - - - | | | | 3 2 2 2. |
| WARWICK FARM | g4 | - 3 3 2. | - - - - | 2 2 - - | - - - - | - - 3 1 | 2 3 - 2 | - 3 3 - | | | | 0 0 0 1 |
| YORK | g4 | - - - - | 2 1 1 2 | 1 1 - 2 | 2 1 1 - | 2 1 - - | 3 3 - - | 1 3. - 3. | 2 3 1 3. | | | 2 4 3 0 |
Header: w m h e = Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk
The table shows the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk in that order. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
For example, a cell entry of 1 2. 3 would read as:
.. 1 .. rated 1st (100 pointer) on Wrat
.. - .. not rated in the top three on Wmod
.. 2. .. rated equal 2nd on Whcp (the full stop after the numeric indicates it was rated equal 2nd)
.. 3 .. rated 3rd on Wexpk
As well as the results for individual races there a summary for each meeting which shows the number of winners for each of the Wizard and Wizard Plus ratings. An entry showing '4 3 0 2.' would be read as follows:
.. 4 .. 4 of the winners were rated 1st on Wrat
.. 3 .. 3 of the winners were rated 1st on Wmod
.. 0 .. no winner was rated 1st on Whcp
.. 2. .. 2 winners were rated 1st on Wexpk but at least one of these was an equal top-rater
With respect to equal-rated runners: This does not happen with Wrat as we have an algorithm that separates runners by adjusting the base ratings by career-record and form-related factors. The same procedure is applied with the Wmod, but not as extensively, and occasionally equal-rated horses could appear, but infrequently.
Where equal-rated runners are more common is in the ratings analysis that is basically pure weight handicapping, the Whcp and Wexpk analyses.
Trainer Profile for Michael Freedman
Michael is the youngest of the legendary FBI (Freeman Brothers Incorporated), a training phenomenon in Melbourne for some 30 years after Lee and Anthony moved from their initial stable at Warwick Farm to Flemington. Before setting up at Warwick Farm the two brothers had trained out of 6 boxes at Hardwicke Stud located near Yass, which had been established by their father, Tony Freedman.
Michael joined his brothers (Lee, Anthony, and Richard) in 1988 and was part of the team during their halcyon days: winning multiple Group 1 races, including 5 Melbourne Cups, and many other feature races.
In 2008 Michael was granted a licence to train in Singapore and he remained there until 2016 when he returned to Australia, setting up 'shop' for only around 12 months before he was offered a licence to train in Hong Kong. He took up this opportunity and stayed there until 2019 before returning to Sydney so that he and his wife Anna could be closer to their children who were schooling in Australia.
In Singapore Michael enjoyed great success being leading trainer in 2012 and in the top 5 trainer's list in 7 of his 8 years in that city. More success followed in Hong Kong before his early departure.
After returning to Australia Michael teamed up with brother Richard and the partnership enjoyed some great results, winning Group 1 races with Stay Inside (Golden Slipper) and Forbidden Love (Surround Stakes, Canterbury Stakes, George Ryder Stakes) as well as numerous other Stakes and feature races.
In 2022 Michael once again established his own stable, located at Randwick, and has continued to train winners on both metropolitan and provincial tracks. His latest stakes success came last Saturday when Wymark, ridden by Tommy Berry, won the Group 2 Tulloch Stakes at Rosehill.
Website: https://www.mfracing.com.au/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Mfracing7
Twitter: https://twitter.com/MFreedmanRacing
Watch and Wait
With some trainers there are indicators that are especially worth noting. It is a matter of watching and waiting for the right conditions occur. It might be that the trainer out-performs with runners having their first start after a spell, or in sprint races rather than over longer distances, or backing up for a repeat win in a given time period. When these 'key metrics' are in play it is worthwhile paying particular attention to the runner.
Some key metrics for Michael Freedman follow. All results listed were profitable on flat stakes and show the win percentage and the impact value for two odds ranges.
Runs from a spell
1st race start: 34.7% 1.4iv (odds range to $9.90)
1st up: 29.4% 1.2iv (odds range to $9.90)
1st race start: 42.1% 1.7iv (odds range $2.00 to $5.90)
1st up: 31.1% 1.3iv (odds range $2.00 to $5.90)
2nd up: 29.8* 1.2iv (odds range $2.00 to $5.90)
Days since Last run
30-60 days: 33.3% 1.4iv (odds range to $9.90)
61-179 days: 32.8% 1.4iv (odds range to $9.90)
30-60 days: insufficient results (odds range $2.00 to $5.90)
61-179 days: 38.2% 1.7iv (odds range $2.00 to $5.90)
Days since last win
8 14 days: 35.7% 1.6iv (odds range to $9.90)
8 14 days: insufficient results (odds range $2.00 to $5.90)
Distance of races
To 1199m: 28.9% 1.2iv (odds range to $9.90)
1200m-1399m: 25.7% 1.0iv (odds range to $9.90)
To 1199m: 28.3% 1.1iv (odds range $2.00 to $5.90
1200m-1399m: 28.0% 1.1iv (odds range $2.00 to $5.90
The results above cover all ages, but it is worth noting that the stable does particularly well with 3yo gallops in these categories.
Michael Freedman Jockey combinations
The table below examines the trainer-jockey combinations under three conditions:
- When the horse is the Wrat 100 pointer and started at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
- When the horse runs as the race favourite at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
- When the horse starts at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
The overall stats for Michael Freedman in this $2.00 to $5.90 odds range:
- When the Wizard Rating (Wrat) is 100 = 32.8%
- When the Starting Price Favourite = 40.7%
- All runners in the odds range = 31.0%
The statistics cover the stable's runners throughout Australia.
The time covered is 1 August 2022 to 30 March 2024, so last season and the current season. (Older results for trainer-jockey combinations not really relevant.)
| 1.8.22 to 31.3.24 | | 100 | | | | | fav | | | | | 2-5.9 | | | |
| Michael Freedman with | win% | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | unp | win% | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | unp | Win% | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | unp |
| Andrew Adkins | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Blake Shinn | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brett Prebble | - | - | - | - | - | 33.0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 40.0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Christian Reith | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | - | - | - | 25.0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Joshua Parr | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jason Collett | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| James McDonald | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.0% | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Jett Stanley | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Keagan Latham | 33.0% | 6 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 31.0% | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 22.5% | 10 | 8 | 11 | 15 |
| Mitchell Bell | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20.0% | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Qin Yong | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | - | - | - | 100.0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rory Hutchings | 31.0% | 5 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 47.0% | 8 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 38.0% | 12 | 6 | 2 | 12 |
| Rachel King | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 25.0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14.5% | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Shaun Guymer | - | - | - | - | - | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Clark | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tom Sherry | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 28.5% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Tommy Berry | 50.0% | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 73.0% | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 47.0% | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Tyler Schiller | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 40.0% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 50.0% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Zac Lloyd | 50.0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 86.0% | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zac Wadick | 100.0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 66.0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 50.0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Note: Five of the six wins for Zac Lloyd were on one horse, Insurrection.
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com