Wizard Daily Report and Research - Monday, 25 March 2024.
- Combining Wizard Ratings and Wizard Plus Factorials
- Wizard Ratings Results for week ending March 24
Combining Wizard Ratings and Wizard Plus Factorials
When on any given day there are dozens of races on which to bet, and hundreds of horses contesting those races, what is needed is a means of separating the wheat from the chaff.
Last Saturday I discussed the Wizard Plus Factorials and how they might relate to the bet-selection process.
I said, "We have found that there is value in combining the ratings-based and 'factorial' assessments when making final selections and this aspect will be addressed in following articles."
This is the first of the follow-up articles on this topic.
First, let me make the point that what follows is not a recommended selection strategy. It is a description of one possible approach to integrating the quantitative (ratings) element of Wizard with the qualitative (factorial) element. It also reflects some of the points I have made, and views I have shared, in these Daily Reports.
So here is one possible approach to combining Wizard ratings and Wizard Plus factorials.
With respect to races:
- Eliminate from consideration all maiden class races, races restricted to 2yo or 3yo horses, and all Group races (Groups 1, 2, 3 and Listed). Whilst the Wizard ratings work well in many 2yo and 3yo and maiden class races, the data needed for factorial analysis is inadequate, and would therefore be unreliable. With respect to the Group races, the Wizard ratings also perform well, but a disproportionate number of runners are likely to qualify under the factorials and that means a lack of potential separation.
- Ignore races that will be run on heavy tracks.
When it comes to the ratings:
- The base rating is the Wizard Ratings (Wrat) 100 pointer. Accept the Wrat 100 pointer if it is also rated 100 by either the Whcp or Wexpk assessments. (Here we seeking to have the Wrat 100 pointer's "current form" claims confirmed by either the Whcp or Wexpk ratings that focus on the inherent ability of the horse, and over a longer time period.) Note: This horse must be the only 100 pointer in either the Whcp or Wexpk ratings; if there are equal 100 pointers, ignore the race.)
With respect to the Wizard factorials:
- The Wrat/Whcp/Wexpk ratings qualifier must also be listed as a qualifier in at least one of the Factorial columns: Wjktr (jockey/trainer), WFilt (filter), or Wneg (negatives).
Finally, the recommended odds range is our frequently discussed $2.00 to $5.90 range. There will be occasions when the market is at the margins of this range and decisions would have to be delayed until the last few minutes of betting. Such is life.
Yesterday, I analysed the meetings run over the past week and applied the above approach. The results for the week were:
| w/e 24.3.24 | wins | win % | places | place % |
| Monday | 0 from 1 | 0.0% | 0 from 1 | 0.0% |
| Tuesday | 0 from 2 | 0.0% | 2 from 2 | 100.0% |
| Wednesday | 1 from 5 | 20.0% | 3 from 6 | 50.0% |
| Thursday | 2 from 2 | 100.0% | 2 from 2 | 100.0% |
| Friday | 5 from 11 | 45.0% | 10 from 11 | 91.0% |
| Saturday | 4 from 6 | 66.0% | 4 from 6 | 66.0% |
| Sunday | 0 from 1 | 0.0% | 0 from 1 | 0.0% |
| | 12 from 28 | 43% | 21 from 29 | 72.0% |
From the table: On Friday, for example, there 11 qualifiers, of whom 5 won and 10 were placed.
Below are the qualifiers for last Saturday, with the final 6 being determined by the odds range.
| 23.3.24 Sat | race | sot | class | Wrat | Whcp | Wexp | Wjktr | Wfilt | Wneg | FIN | odds |
| Ascot | 9 | g4 | Min-66 | 100 | 1 | 0 | y | 0 | 0 | unp | $6.50 |
| Benalla | 5 | g3 | r-58 | 100 | 1 | 0 | y | 0 | 0 | unp | $12.00 |
| Eagle Farm | 3 | g4 | C3 | 100 | 1 | 0 | y | 0 | 0 | unp | $3.40 |
| | 7 | | fmb-78 | 100 | 1 | 2. | 0 | y | y | won | $3.20 |
| | 9 | | open | 100 | 1 | 3. | y | 0 | 0 | won | $2.00 |
| Morphettville | 4 | g4 | bm-82 | 100 | 1 | 1 | y | 0 | y | won | $2.70 |
| | 6 | | r-64 | 100 | 1 | 3. | y | 0 | 0 | unp | $6.50 |
| | 9 | | bm-64 | 100 | 1 | 3. | 0 | y | y | unp | $5.00 |
| Toowoomba | 5 | g4 | C3 | 100 | 2. | 1 | y | 0 | 0 | won | $3.00 |
Again, I stress that this is not a recommended selection/betting strategy. It reflects a conservative, narrow-focused approach, seeking quality rather than quantity. It ignores the opportunities to support Wizard's longer-priced rated runners. It is posted here merely to suggest the type of approach subscribers might consider when combining the ratings and non-ratings content of Wizard and Wizard Plus.
Wizard Ratings Report week ending Sunday, March 24
The following tables show the where the winner of each race run last week was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
| Mon 18.03.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e |
| ARMIDALE | s5s7 | 1 1 2 1 | 1 1 1 3. | 1 1 1 1 | 2 1 3 - | 3 3 1 2. | - - - 2. | - 3 2 - | | | | 3 4 3 2 |
| CHINCHILLA | g4f2 | - - - - | 1 1 1 2 | - 3 - 1 | 1 1 3 - | - 1 2. 1 | - - - 1 | - - - - | | | | 2 3 1 3 |
| KEMPSEY | s5h8 | 1 1 1 1 | 3 2 - 1 | | | | | | | | | 1 1 1 2 |
| Tue 19.03.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e |
| HAWKESBURY | s6g4 | 3 3 1 - | 1 1 1 1 | 1 1 3. - | - - 3. - | 2 2 2. 1 | - 2 - - | 2 3 - - | - - 3. - | | | 2 2 2 2 |
| KYNETON | g4g3 | - - - - | - - - - | 2 2 3 1 | 1 1 3. 1 | - - - - | - - - - | 1 1 - - | - - 3 - | | | 2 2 0 2 |
| MACKAY | g4 | 1 1 1 - | - - - 2 | 1 1 2 - | - - - - | 1 1 - - | 1 3 3 - | - 3. - - | | | | 4 3 1 0 |
| Wed 20.03.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e |
| BELMONT PARK | g4 | 3 2 2 2 | 3 3 - - | - - - - | - - - - | - - - - | 1 3 - 2 | - - - - | | | | 1 0 0 0 |
| CANBERRA | s7 | 1 2 2 3 | - - 3. - | 3 3. - 2 | 3 - 1 1 | - - - 1 | 1 1 1 2 | 1 1 3. - | | | | 3 2 2 2 |
| DOOMBEN | s7s5 | 3 2 1 2. | 1 1 2 3. | 1 1 - - | - - - 3 | 1 1 - 1 | - - 3 - | - - - - | | | | 3 3 1 1 |
| MURRAY BRIDGE | s5 | - 2 - - | 3 1 2 3 | 1 1 1. 3. | 2 1 - - | - - - - | 1 1 3 - | 3 1 3. - | | | | 2 5 1. 0 |
| SANDOWN-HILLSIDE | s5g4 | 1 1. 1 3 | 3 - 1 - | 3 3 2. - | - - 2. - | - - - - | - - - - | - 2. 2 3 | - - 2. - | | | 1 1. 2 0 |
| WYONG | g4s5 | 1 1 2 2 | 2 1 2 2 | - - - - | 2 - 1 1 | 1 2 - - | 3 3. 1 - | - - - - | 1 - - - | | | 3 2 2 1 |
| Thu 21.03.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e |
| ALBURY | s6g4 | 1 1 2. - | - - - - | 1 3 - - | 2 - - - | 1 2 3 - | 3 2 2. - | - - - - | | | | 3 1 0 0 |
| BENDIGO | g4g3 | 2 2 - 2 | 1 2 1 2 | 1 1 1 2 | - - - - | 1 1 1 - | - - - 2 | 3 3 2. 2 | - - 1 1. | | | 3 2 4 1. |
| IPSWICH | g4 | - - - 1 | 3 - 1 1 | - 2 - 1 | - - - 3 | 1 1 - - | - - - 3 | - - 3. - | | | | 1 1 1 3 |
| NARROGIN | g3 | - - - 1 | - 3 - 1 | 2 1 1. - | 1 1 2. - | 2 3 1 2 | - - - - | - - - 3. | - - - - | | | 1 2 2. 2 |
| NEWCASTLE | s5 | 2 2 1 2. | 2 1 1 1 | 1 1 1 2 | 1 1 1 1 | - - - - | 2 3 1 1 | 3 3 1 1 | 3 2 3 - | | | 2 3 6 4 |
| PAKENHAM | g4 | 3 2 3 - | - - - - | 1 2 - - | 1 2 3 3. | 3 - 3 - | 2 1 2 3 | - - - - | - - - - | | | 2 1 0 0 |
| Fri 22.03.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e |
| ALBURY | g4 | 3 2 2 - | 1 1 - - | - 2 3 - | - - 3 - | 2 2 1 - | - - - - | 1 1 1 - | 2 2 1 3. | | | 2 2 3 0 |
| CRANBOURNE | g4 | 2 1 1 1 | 3 2 2 1 | - 2 2 3 | 1 2 - - | - - 3 3 | 1 1 1 1 | - - - 3 | | | | 2 2 2 3 |
| DARWIN | WetFastg | - - - - | 1 1 1 2 | - - 2. 1 | 1 2 1 3 | | | | | | | 2 1 2 1 |
| HORSHAM | g4g3 | - - - - | - - - - | - - 2. - | 2 2 1 2 | - 2 2 2 | - - - - | 1 1 3. - | 2 - 2 2 | | | 1 1 1 0 |
| LAUNCESTON | s5g4 | - - - 3 | 1 1 2. - | 3 3 2 3 | 1 1 - 2 | 2 - 3 2 | 1 2 - - | 3 1 3. - | 1 1 1 3 | | | 4 4 1 0 |
| MT GAMBIER | s5 | 2 2 1 1 | 3 3 3 - | - - - - | - - 3. 1. | - - - - | - - - - | - - 3 2. | 1 1 - - | | | 1 1 1 2. |
| SCONE | s7s6 | - - - - | 1 1 1 1 | 3 2 2 2 | 3 - 3. - | - - 3. - | 1 1 1. - | - - - 3 | - - 3 - | | | 2 2 2. 1 |
| TOWNSVILLE | s5g4 | 2 2 1 1 | 1 1 2 - | - 3 - - | 3 3 - - | 3 3 2 1 | - - - 1 | 2 2 1 2 | - - - - | | | 1 1 2 3 |
| Sat 23.03.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e |
| ASCOT | g4 | 2 3 1 - | 2 1 - - | - - 2 - | - - 2 1 | - - - - | 1 - 3 3. | - - 2. - | - - - 3. | - - 3 3. | | 1 1 1 1 |
| BENALLA | g4g3 | 1 1 1 2 | - - - - | - 3. - - | - - - 3. | - - - - | - - - 1. | 1 2 1 1. | | | | 2 1 2 2. |
| EAGLE FARM | g4 | - 3 - - | - - - - | - - - 1 | - - - - | 2 2 1 - | - - - - | 1 1 1 2. | - - - - | 1 1 1 3. | | 2 2 3 1 |
| GOLD COAST POLY | aw | 3 - 1. 3 | 1 2 1 1 | 1 2 3 - | 1 1 - 3 | 2 1 2. - | - - - - | - - - 3 | | | | 3 2 2. 1 |
| KEMBLA GRANGE | h8 | - - - - | 3 3 - 3. | - - - 3. | 3 - 3 2 | - - 1 3. | - - 2. - | 1 1 - - | 1 1 - - | | | 2 2 1 0 |
| MOONEE VALLEY | g4 | 3 2 3 3. | - - - - | 3 2 - - | - - - - | - - - - | - - - - | - - - - | 1 1 1 1 | 2 1 - - | 3 3 - - | 1 2 1 1 |
| MORPHETTVILLE | g4 | 2 2 1 3. | - - - - | - 3 - - | 1 1 1 1 | 3 - 1 1 | - - 2. 1. | - 3. - 1 | 1 2 2 1 | - - - - | | 2 1 3 5. |
| PINGRUP | g | 3 3 3 1 | 2 3. 1 2. | - - - 3 | - 3 - - | - - 3 - | 3 2. 3 2 | | | | | 0 0 1 1 |
| ROSEHILL | s5g4 | 1 1 - - | 1 - - - | 3 1 1 2. | 2 1 1 - | 1 1 2 2 | 2 1 2. 2. | - - - - | - - 2 1. | - - 2 - | - - 3. 3 | 3 5 2 1. |
| SAPPHIRE COAST | s6 | - 3. 3. 3. | 1 1 3 3. | 1 2 - 3 | - 3 - - | 3 - 3. 2. | 1 1 2 2. | | | | | 3 2 0 0 |
| TOOWOOMBA | g4 | 3 2 2. - | - - - - | 3 - 1 1. | 2 3 - - | 1 1 2. 1 | 3 3 - 3. | - - - - | | | | 1 1 1 2. |
| Sun 24.03.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e |
| BAIRNSDALE | g4 | - - 3. - | 1 1 3. 3 | - - - - | 2 - 1 1 | 2 1 1 - | - - - - | - 3 - - | - - 2 - | | | 1 2 2 1 |
| BALLARAT | g4g3 | - 3. 3. 3. | 1 1 - - | - - - - | 1 1 3 1 | 2 2 1 - | 2 1 2 2 | - - - - | 2 1 3 - | | | 2 4 1 1 |
| GOULBURN | s7 | 1 2 1 2. | 1 3 1 - | - - - - | 1 3 - - | 2 3 - 2. | 2 2 1. - | - - - - | - - - - | | | 3 0 3. 0 |
| HOBART | s5g4 | 1 1 2 2 | 1 1 1 2. | - - - - | 1 1 3. - | 3 - 2 - | - - - 2 | - - - - | 2 2 - - | | | 3 3 1 0 |
| ORANGE | s5 | 2 1 2 1 | 3 - 3. - | 1 2 3 3. | - - - - | - - 3 2. | 2 1 - - | - - - 3. | | | | 1 2 0 1 |
| PINJARRA SCARP | g4 | 1 1 2 1 | 1 1 1 3 | 2 - 1. - | - 3 1 2 | - - - 3 | 2 1 - - | - - 3. - | 3 - 3 2. | - - - 3. | | 2 3 3. 1 |
| SUNSHINE COAST | aw | - 3 - 1. | - 3 2. - | 3 - 1 1 | - 2 - 3. | - 2 3. - | 3 - 3 2 | - - - - | | | | 0 0 1 2. |
Header - w m h e = Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk
Overall, the result last week for Wrat was 26% (86 winners from 331 races.)
From Monday to Sunday the daily results were: (37.5%, 34.5%, 29.5%, 26%, 25.5%, 23%, 22%)
A few of the more notable double-figure top-rated (100 pointer) winners last week were:
Ruby Flyer - Kembla Grange - $19.00- Wrat and Wmod
Cyborg - Canberra - $21.00 - Wexpk
Miss Anonymity - Narrogin - $14.00 - Wexpk
Lady Ducati - Narrogin - $14.00 - Wexpk
Missile Star - Morphettville - $14.00 - Wexpk
The above tables show the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk in that order. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
For example, a cell entry of 1 2. 3 would read as:
.. 1 .. rated 1st (100 pointer) on Wrat
.. - .. not rated in the top three on Wmod
.. 2. .. rated equal 2nd on Whcp (the full stop after the numeric indicates it was rated equal 2nd)
.. 3 .. rated 3rd on Wexpk
As well as the results for individual races there a summary for each meeting which shows the number of winners for each of the Wizard and Wizard Plus ratings. An entry showing '4 3 0 2.' would be read as follows:
.. 4 .. 4 of the winners were rated 1st on Wrat
.. 3 .. 3 of the winners were rated 1st on Wmod
.. 0 .. no winner was rated 1st on Whcp
.. 2. .. 2 winners were rated 1st on Wexpk but at least one of these was an equal top-rater
With respect to equal-rated runners: This does not happen with Wrat as we have an algorithm that separates runners by adjusting the base ratings by career-record and form-related factors. The same procedure is applied with the Wmod, but not as extensively, and occasionally equal-rated horses could appear, but infrequently.
Where equal-rated runners are more common is in the ratings analysis that is basically pure weight handicapping, the Whcp and Wexpk analyses.
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com