Wizard Daily Report and Research - Friday, 22 March 2024.
Wizard Ratings Report - Wizard Plus Wexpk - Tomorrow (NEW)
- Wizard Ratings Report for Thursday, March 21
- Wizard Plus Wexpk
- Tomorrow - New report on Wizard Plus Trainer/Jockey, Filter and Negatives indicators
Wizard Ratings Report for the meetings on Thursday, March 21
The following table shows the where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
| Thu 21.03.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e |
| ALBURY | s6g4 | 1 1 2. - | - - - - | 1 3 - - | 2 - - - | 1 2 3 - | 3 2 2. - | - - - - | | | | 3 1 0 0 |
| BENDIGO | g4g3 | 2 2 - 2 | 1 2 1 2 | 1 1 1 2 | - - - - | 1 1 1 - | - - - 2 | 3 3 2. 2 | - - 1 1. | | | 3 2 4 1. |
| IPSWICH | g4 | - - - 1 | 3 - 1 1 | - 2 - 1 | - - - 3 | 1 1 - - | - - - 3 | - - 3. - | | | | 1 1 1 3 |
| NARROGIN | g3 | - - - 1 | - 3 - 1 | 2 1 1. - | 1 1 2. - | 2 3 1 2 | - - - - | - - - 3. | - - - - | | | 1 2 2. 2 |
| NEWCASTLE | s5 | 2 2 1 2. | 2 1 1 1 | 1 1 1 2 | 1 1 1 1 | - - - - | 2 3 1 1 | 3 3 1 1 | 3 2 3 - | | | 2 3 6 4 |
| PAKENHAM | g4 | 3 2 3 - | - - - - | 1 2 - - | 1 2 3 3. | 3 - 3 - | 2 1 2 3 | - - - - | - - - - | | | 2 1 0 0 |
Header - w m h e = Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk
The table shows the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk in that order. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
For example, a cell entry of 1 2. 3 would read as:
.. 1 .. rated 1st (100 pointer) on Wrat
.. - .. not rated in the top three on Wmod
.. 2. .. rated equal 2nd on Whcp (the full stop after the numeric indicates it was rated equal 2nd)
.. 3 .. rated 3rd on Wexpk
As well as the results for individual races there a summary for each meeting which shows the number of winners for each of the Wizard and Wizard Plus ratings. An entry showing '4 3 0 2.' would be read as follows:
.. 4 .. 4 of the winners were rated 1st on Wrat
.. 3 .. 3 of the winners were rated 1st on Wmod
.. 0 .. no winner was rated 1st on Whcp
.. 2. .. 2 winners were rated 1st on Wexpk but at least one of these was an equal top-rater
With respect to equal-rated runners: This does not happen with Wrat as we have an algorithm that separates runners by adjusting the base ratings by career-record and form-related factors. The same procedure is applied with the Wmod, but not as extensively, and occasionally equal-rated horses could appear, but infrequently.
Where equal-rated runners are more common is in the ratings analysis that is basically pure weight handicapping, the Whcp and Wexpk analyses.
Wizard Wexpk - available in Wizard Plus
The Wexpk analysis assesses the horse on its best (weight for age adjusted) rating from its previous preparation as well as its current preparation. It is looking for the horse that can prevail if it runs to its proven best form.
As with Whcp the Wexpk assessment is an almost pure relative weight assessment with minimal input from other factors. The only adjustments to the WFA adjusted base ratings analysis involve bonuses or penalties for consistency, barrier position, and jockey ability.
To provide a full picture two tables are included here.
This first table includes all Wexpk 100 pointers, and covers all races irrespective of the number of equal Whcp 100 pointers present.
Percentage of Wexpk selections and winners in SP odds range all Wexpk races, all 100 pointers
| 2022-2023 | win % | odds-on | | | 2.00-5.99 | | | 6.00-9.99 | | | 10.00+ | | |
| Wexpk ALL selns | | seln | wins | iv | seln | wins | iv | seln | wins | iv | seln | wins | iv |
| Metropolitan | 13.2% | 2.5% | 10.8% | 4.3 | 32.5% | 58.8% | 1.8 | 19.8% | 17.4% | 0.9 | 45.2% | 13.0% | 0.3 |
| Provincial | 15.4% | 4.7% | 18.4% | 3.9 | 34.7% | 54.7% | 1.6 | 20.2% | 14.4% | 0.7 | 40.3% | 12.4% | 0.3 |
| Country | 14.9% | 4.1% | 16.8% | 4.1 | 32.3% | 56.5% | 1.8 | 19.0% | 15.2% | 0.8 | 44.5% | 11.4% | 0.3 |
This second table reports on only those races in which there is a single Wexpk 100 pointer present, after scratchings.
Percentage of Wexpk selections and winners in SP odds range when only one 100 pointer in a race
| 2022-2023 | win % | odds-on | | | 2.00-5.99 | | | 6.00-9.99 | | | 10.00+ | | |
| Wexpk 1 seln | seln | wins | iv | seln | wins | iv | seln | wins | iv | seln | wins | iv |
| Metropolitan | 13.7% | 3.0% | 12.8% | 4.3 | 34.1% | 59.9% | 1.8 | 19.5% | 16.7% | 0.9 | 43.4% | 10.6% | 0.3 |
| Provincial | 15.9% | 5.3% | 20.2% | 3.8 | 35.4% | 54.4% | 1.5 | 20.4% | 14.2% | 0.7 | 38.9% | 11.2% | 0.3 |
| Country | 15.0% | 4.2% | 17.2% | 4.1 | 32.1% | 56.2% | 1.8 | 19.3% | 15.4% | 0.8 | 44.4% | 11.3% | 0.3 |
The above results have been sub-divided into Metropolitan, Provincial, and Country.
The results are broken down into four Starting Price odds categories: odds-on, $2.00 to $5.90, $6.00 to $9.90, $10.00 and longer.
Reading a line from left to right:
Location metropolitan
Win% - overall win strike rate of Wexpk in the location
Selns - Percentage of 100 pointer selections that were within the SP odds category
Wins - Percentage of 100 pointer winners that were within the SP odds category
IV - The impact Value applicable the SP odds category.
Example:
Location Win% odds-on $2.00-$5.90 $6.00-$9.90 $10.00 +
Selns Wins IV Selns Wins IV Selns Wins IV Selns Wins IV
Provincial 25.7% - 12.0% 27.0% 2.3 - 67.0% 66.0% 1.0 - 15.0% 5.5% 0.35 - 6.0% 1.5%% 0.25
So, for the period under review, at the Provincial meetings:
- The win strike rate was 25.7%
- 12.0% of the 100 pointer selections started at odds-on
- 27.0% of the 100 pointer winners started at odds-on
- The impact value of 2.3 showed that these odds-on 100 pointers won 2.3 times their fair share of the races won by the group as a whole
- 67.0% of the 100 pointer selections started at odds ranging from $2.00 to $5.90
- 66.0% of the 100 pointer winners started at odds ranging from $2.00 to $5.90
- The impact value of 1.0 showed that these $2.00-$5.90 100 pointers won their fair share of the races
- Etc etc etc
As can be seen from the two tables above, with Wexpk there is not a great difference in terms of win percentages between the two betting options:
- Bet all Wexpk 100 pointers irrespective of the number of equal 100 pointers
- Bet only in those races where there is only one Wexpk 100 pointer, after scratchings.
However, there is a genuine difference between the Wrat 100 pointer and the Wexpk 100 pointer. For example, in the metropolitan area 28% of the Wrat selections started at $6.00 or longer odds, but with Wexpk 100 pointers that figure is 65%. In terms of winners, the Wrat 100 pointers had 10.6% at $6.00 or longer in 2022-23, whereas the Wexpk 100 pointers had 30.4% of their winners in this odds range.
From an overall perspective, for the 'average' punter there is no point trying to engineer value out of odds-on bets. However, with Wexpk there is the potential to exploit opportunities in the $6.00 and longer categories, and this will be discussed later. Also from a betting perspective, the attractiveness of the $2.00 to $5.90 odds range is not as great with Wexpk selections as it is with Wrat and Wmod.
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com