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Wizard Report - Wizard Plus (Wmod) - Wizard Wrat monitoring (NEW)

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Wednesday, 20 March 2024.

Wizard Report - Wizard Plus (Wmod) - Wizard Wrat monitoring (NEW)

Wizard Ratings Report for Tuesday, March 19
Wizard Plus Rating - Wmod
Wizard Wrat monitoring (NEW)

Wizard Ratings Report for meetings on Tuesday, March 19

The following table shows the where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.

Tue 19.03.24		Race 1	Race 2	Race 3	Race 4	Race 5	Race 6	Race 7	Race 8	Race 9	Race 10	meeting
	SOT	w m h e	w m h e	w m h e	w m h e	w m h e	w m h e	w m h e	w m h e	w m h e	w m h e	w m h e
HAWKESBURY	s6g4	3 3 1 -	1 1 1 1	1 1 3. -	- - 3. -	2 2 2. 1	- 2 - -	2 3 - -	- - 3. -			2 2 2 2
KYNETON	g4g3	- - - -	- - - -	2 2 3 1	1 1 3. 1	- - - -	- - - -	1 1 - -	- - 3 -			2 2 0 2
MACKAY	g4	1 1 1 -	- - - 2	1 1 2 -	- - - -	1 1 - -	1 3 3 -	- 3. - -				4 3 1 0

Header w m h e = Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk

The table shows the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk in that order. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.

For example, a cell entry of 1 2. 3 would read as:

.. 1 .. rated 1st (100 pointer) on Wrat

.. - .. not rated in the top three on Wmod

.. 2. .. rated equal 2nd on Whcp (the full stop after the numeric indicates it was rated equal 2nd)

.. 3 .. rated 3rd on Wexpk

As well as the results for individual races there a summary for each meeting which shows the number of winners for each of the Wizard and Wizard Plus ratings. An entry showing '4 3 0 2.' would be read as follows:

.. 4 .. 4 of the winners were rated 1st on Wrat

.. 3 .. 3 of the winners were rated 1st on Wmod

.. 0 .. no winner was rated 1st on Whcp

.. 2. .. 2 winners were rated 1st on Wexpk but at least one of these was an equal top-rater

With respect to equal-rated runners: This does not happen with Wrat as we have an algorithm that separates runners by adjusting the base ratings by career-record and form-related factors. The same procedure is applied with the Wmod, but not as extensively, and occasionally equal-rated horses could appear, but infrequently.

Where equal-rated runners are more common is in the ratings analysis that is basically pure weight handicapping, the Whcp and Wexpk analyses.

Wizard Wmod - available in Wizard Plus

The Wizard Wmod assessment is based on a regression analysis of race results over a 10-year period. The main factors feeding into this assessment were relative weight advantage, age, sex, consistency, earnings, current form, best form in past 12 months, distance ability, barrier position, form cycle, jockey, and trainer.

Percentage of Wmod selections and winners in SP odds range

2022-2023	win %	odds-on			2.00-5.90			6.00-9.90			10.00+
		seln	wins	iv	seln	wins	iv	seln	wins	iv	seln	wins	iv
Metropolitan	23.2%	7.9%	19.0%	2.4	63.9%	70.4%	1.1	18.2%	9.2%	0.5	10.0%	1.4%	0.1
Provincial	24.3%	11.0%	26.1%	2.4	62.2%	64.5%	1.0	17.4%	7.1%	0.4	9.4%	2.3%	0.2
Country	25.9%	12.1%	26.9%	2.2	63.0%	65.2%	1.0	16.1%	6.1%	0.4	8.8%	1.8%	0.2

The table shows the results of Wmod for the 2022-2023 season, for all gallops races run in Australia that were covered by Tab. These results have been sub-divided into Metropolitan, Provincial, and Country.

The results are broken down into four Starting Price odds categories: odds-on, $2.00 to $5.90, $6.00 to $9.90, $10.00 and longer.

Reading a line from left to right:

Location - metropolitan

Win% - overall win strike rate of Wmod in the location

Selns - Percentage of 100 pointer selections that were within the SP odds category

Wins - Percentage of 100 pointer winners that were within the SP odds category

IV - The impact Value applicable the SP odds category.

Example:

Location Win% odds-on $2.00-$5.90 $6.00-$9.90 $10.00 +

Selns Wins IV Selns Wins IV Selns Wins IV Selns Wins IV

Provincial 25.7% - 12.0% 27.0% 2.3 - 67.0% 66.0% 1.0 - 15.0% 5.5% 0.35 - 6.0% 1.5%% 0.25

So, for the period under review, at the Provincial meetings:

The win strike rate of Wmod was 25.7%
12.0% of the Wmod 100 pointer selections started at odds-on
27.0% of the Wmod 100 pointer winners started at odds-on
The impact value of 2.3 showed that these odds-on 100 pointers won 2.3 times their fair share of the races won by the group as a whole
67.0% of the Wmod 100 pointer selections started at odds ranging from $2.00 to $5.90
66.0% of the Wmod 100 pointer winners started at odds ranging from $2.00 to $5.90
The impact value of 1.0 showed that these $2.00-$5.90 100 pointers won their fair share of the races
Etc etc etc

Again, as for Wrat, for the 'average' punter there is no point trying to engineer value out of odds-on bets. There is some potential to exploit opportunities in the $6.00 and longer categories, and this will be discussed later. From these results the best odds range for Wmod betting is also in the $2.00 to $5.90 category. This opportunity will be discussed in detail in the next Wmod article.

Wizard Rating (Wrat) Monitoring

Over many years the Wizard Rating (Wrat) has proved to be a consistent and reliable guide to the chances of runners in all classes, on all tracks, under all conditions, across Australia.

To ensure a continuation of this reliability, we monitor the overall performance of the Wrat on a seasonal and monthly basis to assess the overall consistency of the Wizard Wrat.

The benchmark for comparison that we use is the place strike rate of the starting price favourite as this reflects the widely held view of pros that in-the-money percentages are a better measure of consistency than win-only.

In Australia, the starting price favourite finishes 1,2,3 in 67% of races. This can vary from season to season but is sufficiently consistent to serve as our Wrat 'quality' benchmark.

We like to have our Wrat 100 pointer achieving a place strike race as close as possible to this 67% over time, bearing mind that some 20% of Wrat 100 pointers, at least, will be starting at longer odds than the average SP favourite, and so will normally return a lower place strike rate figure. We are happy with the performance of the Wrat (algorithm) if we are achieving a 60%+ result over time.

To give you an insight into the process, below is a report on just one day, yesterday, March 19. One day is too short a period for realistic comparisons but it is illustrative.

Wizard Rating (Wrat) place analysis for Monday, March 19.

Tue 19.03.24	sot	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	placed
HAWKESBURY	s6g4	- 2.20 2.20	1 2.20 2.20	1 2.60 2.60	- 3.80 3.80	- 15.00 2.25	- 12.00 4.40	2 5.50 3.20	- 6.00 3.30	3 - 8
KYNETON	g4g3	- 7.00 2.40	- 3.10 3.10	2 5.00 2.40	1 4.40 4.40	3 3.00 3.00	3 5.50 5.50	1 6.50 4.40	2 3.40 3.40	6 - 8
MACKAY	g4	1 1.80 1.80	- 31.00 2.60	1 2.10 2.10	- 3.60 3.60	1 6.00 2.90	1 2.15 2.15	2 1.85 1.85		5 - 7

For each of the races three prices of information are recorded:

The finish position of the Wrat 100 pointer ( - means unplaced)
The starting price of the 100 pointer
The starting price of the favourite

You can see from this table that the Wrat 100 pointer placed in 14 of the 23 races, a 61% place rate.

You can also see that in 9 of the 23 races (38%) the Wrat was not the SP favourite, and often started at considerably longer odds; yesterday up to $31.00, as well as another two at double figures. With this odds spread in play a daily 100 pointer place rate of 61% is quite acceptable.

Note: In the win mode the Wrat 100 pointers did well yesterday with a 34.5% win rate and with winners in the $6.00 range.

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

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