Wizard Daily Report and Research - Tuesday, 19 March 2024.
Wizard Ratings Report (1,2) - Wizard Monthly Summary
- Wizard Ratings Monthly Summary - February, March
- Wizard Ratings Results for Monday, March 18
- Wizard Rating (Wrat) discussion
Wizard Ratings Monthly Summary - February, and March to March 17th
The Wizard Rating (Wrat) is a key component of the Wizard and is a reliable and consistent ratings assessment of the chances in all thoroughbred races run in Australia and covered by Tabcorp.
The following table shows the fourth set of monthly results of Wrat during this 2023-2024 racing season. Today, February and March to Sunday the 17th.
| Wrat - February 2024 | Best | Wrat - March 1 to 17, 2024 | Best |
| Top Rated Winner - 380/1545 (24.6%) | $11.40 | Top Rated Winner - 270/1023 (26.4%) | $12.00 |
| Winner (top two rated) - 656 (42.5%) | $45.70 | Winner (top two rated) - 433 (42.3%) | $26.00 |
| Winner (four rated runners) - 1036 (67.1%) | $45.70 | Winner (four rated runners) - 667 (65.2%) | $70.10 |
| Quinella (top two rated) - 179/1538 (11.6%) | $48.50 | Quinella (top two rated) - 98/1019 (9.6%) | $24.20 |
| Quinella (top three rated) - 406 (26.4%) | $72.70 | Quinella (top three rated) - 245 (24.0%) | $133.80 |
| Quinella (four rated runners) - 637 (41.4%) | $106.20 | Quinella (four rated runners) - 394 (38.7%) | $133.80 |
| Exacta (top two rated) - 87 (5.7%) | $69.40 | Exacta (top two rated) - 50 (4.9%) | $45.20 |
| Trifecta (top three, correct order) - 36/1533 (2.3%) | $195.10 | Trifecta (top three, correct order) - 19/1017 (1.9%) | $134.80 |
| Trifecta (box top three) - 135 (8.8%) | $304.70 | Trifecta (box top three) - 66 (6.5%) | $167.40 |
| Trifecta (four rated runners) - 328 (21.4%) | $560.00 | Trifecta (four rated runners) - 197 (19.4%) | $1,426.50 |
| First 4 (correct order) - 17/1516 (1.1%) | $628.00 | First 4 (correct order) - 4/1005 (0.4%) | $83.10 |
| First 4 (box four rated runners) - 130 (8.6%) | $1836.60 | First 4 (box four rated runners) - 63 (6.3%) | $2,503.50 |
The stats in these tables are basically self-explanatory. The "Best" results refer to the highest Tabcorp dividend paid on the best priced result for that category during that month.
Wizard Ratings Report - Monday, March 18
The following table shows the where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
| Mon 18.03.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e |
| ARMIDALE | s5s7 | 1 1 2 1 | 1 1 1 3. | 1 1 1 1 | 2 1 3 - | 3 3 1 2. | - - - 2. | - 3 2 - | | | | 3 4 3 2 |
| CHINCHILLA | g4f2 | - - - - | 1 1 1 2 | - 3 - 1 | 1 1 3 - | - 1 2. 1 | - - - 1 | - - - - | | | | 2 3 1 3 |
| KEMPSEY | s5h8 | 1 1 1 1 | 3 2 - 1 | | | | | | | | | 1 1 1 2 |
Header w m h e = Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk
The table shows the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk in that order. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
For example, a cell entry of 1 2. 3 would read as:
.. 1 .. rated 1st (100 pointer) on Wrat
.. - .. not rated in the top three on Wmod
.. 2. .. rated equal 2nd on Whcp (the full stop after the numeric indicates it was rated equal 2nd)
.. 3 .. rated 3rd on Wexpk
As well as the results for individual races there a summary for each meeting which shows the number of winners for each of the Wizard and Wizard Plus ratings. An entry showing '4 3 0 2.' would be read as follows:
.. 4 .. 4 of the winners were rated 1st on Wrat
.. 3 .. 3 of the winners were rated 1st on Wmod
.. 0 .. no winner was rated 1st on Whcp
.. 2. .. 2 winners were rated 1st on Wexpk but at least one of these was an equal top-rater
With respect to equal-rated runners: This does not happen with Wrat as we have an algorithm that separates runners by adjusting the base ratings by career-record and form-related factors. The same procedure is applied with the Wmod, but not as extensively, and occasionally equal-rated horses could appear, but infrequently.
Where equal-rated runners are more common is in the ratings analysis that is basically pure weight handicapping, the Whcp and Wexpk analyses.
Wrat - Wizard Rating available in Wizard and Wizard Plus
This Wrat ratings assessment takes into account relative weight handicapping advantage and is adjusted (weighted) for the following factors: the quality of current form, barrier position, form cycle, recency, distance ability, consistency, jockey, and trainer.
The following table shows the results of Wrat for the 2022-2023 season, for all gallops races run in Australia that were covered by Tab. These results have been sub-divided into Metropolitan, Provincial, and Country.
The results are broken down into four Starting Price odds categories: odds-on, $2.00 to $5.90, $6.00 to $9.90, $10.00 and longer.
| Percentage of Wrat selections and winners in SP odds ranges |
| 2022-2023 | win % | odds on | 2.00-5.90 | 6.00-9.90 | 10.00+ |
| Location | | selns wins iv | selns wins iv | selns wins iv | selns wins iv |
| Metropolitan | 24.6% | 9.6% 22.0% 2.3 | 70.0% 71.0% 1.0 | 14.5% 6.0% 0.4 | 6.0% 1.0% 0.2 |
| Provincial | 25.7% | 12.0% 27.0% 2.3 | 67.0% 66.0% 1.0 | 15.0% 5.5% 0.35 | 6.0% 1.5% 0.25 |
| Country | 27.0% | 13.5% 29.0% 2.2 | 66.0% 65.0% 1.0 | 14.0% 5.0% 0.35 | 6.5% 1.0% 0.15 |
Reading a line from left to right:
Location - metropolitan etc
Win% - overall win strike rate of Wrat in the location
Selns - Percentage of 100 pointer selections that were within the SP odds category
Wins - Percentage of 100 pointer winners that were within the SP odds category
IV - The impact Value applicable the SP odds category.
Example:
Location Win% odds-on $2.00-$5.90 $6.00-$9.90 $10.00 +
Selns Wins IV Selns Wins IV Selns Wins IV Selns Wins IV
Provincial 25.7% - 12.0% 27.0% 2.3 - 67.0% 66.0% 1.0 - 15.0% 5.5% 0.35 - 6.0% 1.5%% 0.25
So, for the period under review, at the Provincial meetings:
- The win strike rate of Wrat was 25.7%
- 12.0% of the Wrat 100 pointer selections started at odds-on
- 27.0% of the Wrat 100 pointer winners started at odds-on
- The impact value of 2.3 showed that these odds-on 100 pointers won 2.3 times their fair share of the races won by the group as a whole
- 67.0% of the Wrat 100 pointer selections started at odds ranging from $2.00 to $5.90
- 66.0% of the Wrat 100 pointer winners started at odds ranging from $2.00 to $5.90
- The impact value of 1.0 showed that these $2.00-$5.90 100 pointers won their fair share of the races
- Etc etc etc
For the 'average' punter there is no point trying to engineer value out of odds-on bets. There is potential to exploit the opportunities in the $6.00 and longer categories, and this will be discussed in a follow up article. From these results the best odds range for Wrat betting is the $2.00 to $5.90 category. This opportunity will be discussed in detail in the next Wrat article.
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com