Wizard Daily Report and Research - Sunday, 17 March 2024.
Wizard Ratings Report (1,2) - Wizard Monthly Summary (NEW)
- Wizard Ratings Monthly Summary for Oct, Nov (NEW)
- Wizard Ratings Results for Saturday, March 16
- Wizard Panel discussion
Wizard Ratings Monthly Summary - October and November 2023
The Wizard Rating (Wrat) is a key component of the Wizard and is a reliable and consistent ratings assessment of the chances in all thoroughbred races run in Australia and covered by Tabcorp.
The following table shows the second set of monthly results of Wrat during this 2023-2024 racing season. Today, October and November, with reports on later months to follow over the next two days.
Table - Wizard Ratings (Wrat) Results October and November 2023
| October 2023 | | November 2023 | |
| Top Rated Winner - 362/1367 (26.5%) | $18.00 | Top Rated Winner - 362/1417 (25.5%) | $32.30 |
| Winner (top two rated) - 588 (43.0%) | $31.00 | Winner (top two rated) - 613 (43.3%) | $32.30 |
| Winner (four rated runners) - 940 (68.8%) | $51.70 | Winner (four rated runners) - 985 (69.5%) | $43.20 |
| Quinella (top two rated) - 141/1363 (10.3%) | $72.10 | Quinella (top two rated) - 154/1414 (10.9%) | $63.30 |
| Quinella (top three rated) - 342 (25.1%) | $82.80 | Quinella (top three rated) - 380 (26.9%) | $93.30 |
| Quinella (four rated runners) - 551 (40.4%) | $119.80 | Quinella (four rated runners) - 591 (41.8%) | $192.40 |
| Exacta (top two rated) - 81 (5.9%) | $215.80 | Exacta (top two rated) - 75 (5.3%) | $44.70 |
| Trifecta (top three, correct order) - 23/1361 (1.7%) | $249.20 | Trifecta (top three, correct order) - 22/1408 (1.6%) | $69.10 |
| Trifecta (box top three) - 104 (7.6%) | $751.00 | Trifecta (box top three) - 101 (7.2%) | $838.80 |
| Trifecta (four rated runners) - 274 (20.1%) | $1,242.40 | Trifecta (four rated runners) - 304 (21.6%) | $1,077.80 |
| First 4 (correct order) - 7/1353 (0.5%) | $570.70 | First 4 (correct order) - 11/1397 (0.8%) | $309.60 |
| First 4 (box four rated runners) - 89 (6.6%) | $2,944.10 | First 4 (box four rated runners) - 117 (8.4%) | $2,446.00 |
The stats in these tables are basically self-explanatory. The "Best" results refer to the highest Tabcorp dividend paid on the best priced result for that category during that month.
Wizard Ratings Results for the meetings on Saturday, March 16
The table below shows the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk in that order.
Table - Wizard Ratings Results for Saturday, March 16
| Sat 16.03.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e |
| ALBANY | g4 | 1 2 - - | - - - 3 | 3 3 1 1 | 3 2 - - | 1 2 3 2. | - - 2. 3. | 2 2 - - | 3 3 - - | | | 2 0 1 1 |
| ASCOT | g4 | 2 2 1. 1 | 3 - 2 - | - 3 - 2. | - 3 2. - | 3 2 2. - | 1 1 1. 2 | 1 1 2. 2. | 3 2 - - | 3 - 1 1 | | 2 2 3. 2 |
| CAULFIELD | g4 | 3 - 2 - | 3 3 3. 2 | 3 - - - | 2 - 1 - | 2 1 - 2 | 1 1 1 1 | - 3 3 3. | 2 2 2 2 | - - - - | 2 1 - - | 1 3 2 1 |
| DARWIN | g | 1 - 1. - | 1 1 2. 3 | 1 2 - - | 1 1 1 2. | - - - - | - 3 - - | | | | | 4 2 2. 0 |
| EAGLE FARM | g4 | 1 1 1 1. | - - - - | 1 1 1. 3 | - - - 1 | - - - - | - - 3 2. | - - 3. - | 1 1 2. - | - - - - | - - - 3. | 3 3 2. 2. |
| GEELONG | g4g3 | - - - - | - 3 - - | - - - 2 | - - - 2 | 3 3 1 - | 1 - - - | 1 2 - - | 2 2. 2 2 | | | 2 0 1 0 |
| GOSFORD | g4 | - - - - | 1 1 1 1 | - 3. - - | - - - 1 | - - 2. 1 | - - - 3 | - - 2 - | 1 - 1 - | | | 2 1 2 3 |
| GUNNEDAH | g4 | - 2 3 1 | - 3 2 2. | 1 1 1 1 | - - - 1 | - 3 3. - | - - 3. 2 | | | | | 1 1 1 3 |
| IPSWICH | g4 | 1 1 1 - | - - 3 3. | 1 3 3. - | - - - - | 3 2 3. 2. | 1 2 3 - | - - - - | 1 2. - 1. | | | 4 1 1 1. |
| KEMPSEY | s6s5 | - - - - | 3 3 3. - | 3 - - - | 1 1 - - | - - - - | 1 3 - - | | | | | 2 1 0 0 |
| MORPHETTVILLE PARKS | g4 | - 2 - 1 | - - 3. - | - - - 2. | 1 1 - 3 | - 3 - - | 2 3 2 - | - - 2. - | 1 1 - - | 2 - 1 - | | 2 2 1 1 |
| ROCKHAMPTON | s5 | 2 2 3 - | - 2 - - | 2 2 1 1 | 3 2 2 - | 1 1 2 - | 2 1 1 1. | | | | | 1 2 2 2. |
| ROSEHILL | s6 | - 3 - - | - 2 - - | 2 2 - 3 | - - 2. 2 | 1 1 1 2 | 1 1 - - | 3 - - 1 | 1 - - - | - - - - | - 3. - - | 3 2 1 1 |
| TOOWOOMBA | g4 | 3 2 3 3. | - - - 3. | - - - - | 2 1 3. - | 2 2 1 1 | 3 2 2 1 | | | | | 0 1 1 2 |
Header w m h e = Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk
This is the seventh of what will be regular reports on the results of the top 3 rated runners in Wizard and Wizard Plus on Australian race meetings.
The planned schedule is:
Monday - Report on the previous week
Tuesday - Monday Report and Wizard Rating (Wrat) discussion
Wednesday - Tuesday Report and Wizard Plus Model Rating (Wmod) discussion
Thursday - Wednesday Report and Wizard Plus Handicap Rating (Whcp) discussion
Friday - Thursday Report and Wizard Plus Expected Peak Rating (Wexpk) discussion
Saturday - Friday Report and Wizard Plus Jockey, Filter, Negatives discussion
Sunday - Saturday Report and Wizard Panel discussion
The table above shows the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk in that order. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
For example, a cell entry of 1 2. 3 would read as:
.. 1 .. rated 1st (100 pointer) on Wrat
.. - .. not rated in the top three on Wmod
.. 2. .. rated equal 2nd on Whcp (the full stop after the numeric indicates it was rated equal 2nd)
.. 3 .. rated 3rd on Wexpk
As well as the results for individual races there a summary for each meeting which shows the number of winners for each of the Wizard and Wizard Plus ratings. An entry showing '4 3 0 2.' would be read as follows:
.. 4 .. 4 of the winners were rated 1st on Wrat
.. 3 .. 3 of the winners were rated 1st on Wmod
.. 0 .. no winner was rated 1st on Whcp
.. 2. .. 2 winners were rated 1st on Wexpk but at least one of these was an equal top-rater
With respect to equal-rated runners: This does not happen with Wrat as we have an algorithm that separates runners by adjusting the base ratings by career-record and form-related factors. The same procedure is applied with the Wmod, but not as extensively, and occasionally equal-rated horses could appear, but infrequently.
Where equal-rated runners are more common is in the ratings analysis that is basically pure weight handicapping, the Whcp and Wexpk analyses.
Wizard Panel
The Wizard Panel shows the four top rated runners in each race. As well as showing the Wizard (Wrat) top weight-rated runners, and those on adjusted times (Wtime), it also highlights those runners that figure best on a number of form factors, as well as a Consensus (best overall) summary. There is also a points poll that shows the numerical advantage that each runner enjoys, based on their ranking in each of the panels.
Wizard Weight Rating (Wrat)
This assessment takes into account relative weight advantage, the current form pattern of the horse, its record of consistency, etc.
Wizard Time Rating (Wtime)
This assessment is based on the times the horses have recorded over the last 12 months, with special attention paid to those races run at a similar distance to that of the forthcoming race. If no races have been run within 10% of the coming race then a projected time rating is calculated from the quickest (adjusted) time in the closest distance range. The actual recorded times are adjusted for track conditions, weight carried, and class of race.
The four form factors highlighted are:
Best form (previous preparation, current preparation)
These are the four horses which have produced the best weight ratings in their current or prior preparation, adjusted for Weight for Age improvement. This assessment does not discriminate between past races run over varying distances, in different classes, on different courses etc. These ratings can throw up lucrative longshot winners.
Recent Form
This assessment concentrates on a horses last three runs and penalises a horse which is resuming from a spell. The key here is recency.
Distance
This assessment focuses on the last three runs each horse has had over a distance that is within 10% of the distance of the forthcoming race. If a horse has not raced over such a distance the Wizard makes an estimate of its likely distance ability.
Class
This analysis concentrates on those past races which are similar in quality to the forthcoming race. Where a horse has insufficient starts in similar quality races the Wizard makes its own assessment of the horses likely class-ability rating.
Consensus
This panel summarises the overall chances of the better rated horses, as recorded in the other six panels. Each top rated horse in the other panels is allocated 4 points, each second best rated horse 3 points, and each third rates gets 2 points, and the fourth rated gets 1 point. These points are totalled and the horses with the highest number of points are classified as the best overall runners. (Note: The full listing of the rated horses and their points is to be found in the Poll.)
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com