Wizard Daily Report and Research - Friday, 15 March 2024.
Wizard Ratings Report (1,2) - Victorian Country Trainers 11-20 (3)
- Wizard Ratings Report for Thursday, March 14
- Wizard Wexpk
- Victorian Country Trainers
This is the fifth of what will be regular reports on the results of the top 3 rated runners in Wizard and Wizard Plus on Australian race meetings.
Table - Wizard Ratings Report for the meetings on Thursday, March 14
| Thu 14.03.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e |
| BEAUDESERT | g4 | - - 2 3 | 1 1 1 1 | 1 1 1. 3. | - - - - | - - 3 - | 3 2 - 2 | 1 1 2 - | 2 1. 2 - | 2 1 - 3 | | 3 5. 2. 1 |
| BENDIGO | g4 | 3 1 2 2 | 3 1 - 3. | 3 - 3 3 | - - - - | 1 1 - - | - - 3. 2. | 2 - 2 2. | - 3 3. - | | | 1 3 0 0 |
| CRANBOURNE | g4 | 2 2 1. 3 | 3 2 1 3 | - - - 3 | - - - - | 2 3 1 - | - - - - | 2 - 1 1 | 1 1 1. - | | | 1 1 5. 1 |
| PINJARRA | g4 | - - - 2 | 1 1 1 3. | - - - - | 3 3 - 3. | 3 3 3. 1 | - - - - | 2 2 - 2. | - - - 3 | | | 1 1 1 1 |
| WAGGA | g4 | - - - - | - - - 3. | - - - - | - - - 1 | 3 2 1 - | - - - - | 1 - - - | | | | 1 0 1 1 |
| WYONG | g4 | 1 1 3 2 | 1 1 - - | 1 1 - - | 1 3 1 - | - - - - | 2 - - - | 1 1 3. - | - - - - | | | 5 4 1 0 |
Header w m h e = Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk
The schedule:
Monday - Report on the previous week
Tuesday - Monday Report and Wizard Rating (Wrat) discussion
Wednesday - Tuesday Report and Wizard Plus Model Rating (Wmod) discussion
Thursday - Wednesday Report and Wizard Plus Handicap Rating (Whcp) discussion
Friday - Thursday Report and Wizard Plus Expected Peak Rating (Wexpk) discussion
Saturday - Friday Report and Wizard Plus Jockey, Filter, Negatives discussion
Sunday - Saturday Report and Wizard Panel discussion
The table above shows the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk in that order. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
For example, a cell entry of 1 2. 3 would read as:
.. 1 .. rated 1st (100 pointer) on Wrat
.. - .. not rated in the top three on Wmod
.. 2. .. rated equal 2nd on Whcp (the full stop after the numeric indicates it was rated equal 2nd)
.. 3 .. rated 3rd on Wexpk
As well as the results for individual races there a summary for each meeting which shows the number of winners for each of the Wizard and Wizard Plus ratings. An entry showing '4 3 0 2.' would be read as follows:
.. 4 .. 4 of the winners were rated 1st on Wrat
.. 3 .. 3 of the winners were rated 1st on Wmod
.. 0 .. no winner was rated 1st on Whcp
.. 2. .. 2 winners were rated 1st on Wexpk but at least one of these was an equal top-rater
With respect to equal-rated runners: This does not happen with Wrat as we have an algorithm that separates runners by adjusting the base ratings by career-record and form-related factors. The same procedure is applied with the Wmod, but not as extensively, and occasionally equal-rated horses could appear, but infrequently.
Where equal-rated runners are more common is in the ratings analysis that is basically pure weight handicapping, the Whcp and Wexpk analyses.
Wexpk - available in Wizard Plus
The Wexpk analysis assesses the horse on its best (weight for age adjusted) rating from its previous preparation as well as its current preparation. It is looking for the horse that can prevail if it runs to its proven best form.
As with Whcp, the Wexpk assessment can return equal top-rated runners, that is, more than one 100 pointer in a race.
Also, as with Whcp the Wexpk assessment is an almost pure relative weight assessment with minimal input from other factors. The only adjustments to the WFA adjusted base ratings analysis involve bonuses or penalties for consistency, barrier position, and jockey ability.
Given the nature of this assessment, and the possibility of finding top rated runners off older form, and therefore not currently in the public eye, it is no surprise to see the overall win strike rate lower than that of the other assessments which concentrate on current form. In the 2022-23 season the win strike rate for Wexpk was 14.7%%. The odds range of Whcp winners was skewed to longer odds, with the longest priced 100 pointer winner paying $83.00.
Each ratings point can be considered equal to one third (1/3) of a length. Therefore, a horse rated 97 can be seen as rating one length worse than the 100 pointer.
Four key metrics, with impact value - Trainers - Victorian Country.
Wizard continues its reporting on statistics that are relevant to a trainer's mode of operation and their level of success.
Today the Daily Report looks at the trainers who ranked 11 to 20 in Victorian provincial/country racing in the 2022-2023 season in terms of their success rate with runners racing under certain circumstances on country tracks only. The runners considered are those that started at less than 10/1.
Table - Four key metrics - Victorian Country 2022-2023 Trainers 11-20.
| Country | Matt | Symon | Greg | A & S | Danny | Patrick | L & T | Henry | Andrew | Matthew |
| | Laurie | Wilde | Eurell | Freedman | O'Brien | Payne | Corstens | Dwyer | Bobbin | Ellerton |
| won last start | na | 26.8% 1.2 | na | na | na | 22.0% 0.9 | *26.7% 1.3 | 21.1% 1.0 | 17.1% 1.0 | na |
| 1st favourite | 39.4% 1.7 | 35.7% 1.5 | na | 42.9% 1.3 | 40.4% 1.8 | 33.8% 1.5 | 32.6% 1.6 | 32.6% 1.4 | 33.3% 1.9 | na |
| first time starter | na | 22.6% 1.0 | na | *44.0% 1.4 | na | 21.2% 0.9 | 21.1% 1.0 | na | na | na |
| first-up | na | 17.0% 0.7 | na | 29.8% 0.9 | na | 27.1% 1.2 | 20.0% 1.0 | na | 13.9% 0.8 | na |
* - insufficient runners for meaningful result, but sufficient to be indicative.
na - insufficient runners for meaningful result
This analysis reports on the success rate in terms of:
Location:
The factors reported on:
- Won last start. (back-to-back results)
- 1st favourite. (strike rate with starting price favourite)
- First time starter. (strike rate with newcomers)
- First-up. (strike rate with horses resuming from a spell)
Profitability:
- The where the stats of a trainer have been highlighted (bold, red) it means the stable's winners, under that circumstance, returned a flat stakes profit over the period surveyed.
The period covered is the last five years.
Note: As well as the win percentage, the impact value is included.
By way of explanation, an impact value is an index which is calculated by looking at the percentage of winners that possess a particular characteristic (say, 1-7 days since last run) when compared to the percentage of winners from the group as a whole (here, all winners from the stable).
Example:
Suppose Chris Waller had 157 winners from 849 starters who were racing within seven day of their last race (1-7 days). In the period surveyed overall he had 2,794 winners from 20,127 starters.
His 1-7-days winners had an impact value of 1.3.
Calculation:
157 (1-7 winners) divided by 2794 (all winners) = 5.6%
849 (1-7 starters) divided by 20,127 (all starters) = 4.2%
Divide 5.6% by 4.2% = 1.3 (impact value)
An impact value of 1.0 means that the horses with a particular characteristic won a percentage of their races that was equal to the percentage they were of the total number of runners in the group.
In the above example Chris Waller's 1-7-days winners would represent 5.6% of all winners but were only 4.2% of the total starters from the stable. That means these 1-7-days runners won more than their fair share of the races won by the group as a whole.
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com