Wizard Daily Report and Research - Monday, 11 March 2024.
Wizard Ratings Report - week ending 10.3.24 (NEW)
This is the first of what will be regular reports on the results of the top 3 rated runners in Wizard and Wizard Plus on Australian race meetings.
The planned schedule is:
Monday - Report on the previous week
Tuesday - Monday Report and Wizard Rating (Wrat) discussion
Wednesday - Tuesday Report and Wizard Plus Model Rating (Wmod) discussion
Thursday - Wednesday Report and Wizard Plus Handicap Rating (Whcp) discussion
Friday - Thursday Report and Wizard Plus Expected Peak Rating (Wexpk) discussion
Saturday - Friday Report and Wizard Plus Jockey, Filter, Negatives discussion
Sunday - Saturday Report and Wizard Panel discussion
The following tables show where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk in that order.
The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus.
The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
For example, a cell entry of 1 - 2. 3 would read as:
.. 1 .. rated 1st (100 pointer) on Wrat
.. - .. not rated in the top three on Wmod
.. 2. .. rated equal 2nd on Whcp (the full stop after the numeric indicates it was rated equal 2nd)
.. 3 .. rated 3rd on Wexpk
With respect to equal-rated runners: This does not happen with Wrat as we have an algorithm that separates runners by adjusting the base ratings by career-record and form-related factors. The same procedure is applied with the Wmod, but not as extensively, and occasionally equal-rated horses could appear, but infrequently.
Where equal-rated runners are more common is in the ratings analysis that is basically pure weight handicapping, the Whcp and Wexpk analyses.
The Wizard and Wizard Plus Ratings Results for the week ending March 10 follow. (Summary stats follow the tables.)
| Mon 4.3.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 |
| | sot | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | |
| Cowra | s5 | 2 2 1 1 | - - 2 2 | - 2 - - | 3 - - - | 3 2 2 . 1 | - 2 - 3 | | | | |
| York | g4 | 1 1 1 2 | 3 - 2 0 | 2 2 3 . 1 | - - - 1 | 1 - 1 1 | 1 1 1 - | - - - 1 | 1 - 3 - | | |
| Tue 5.3.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 |
| | sot | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | |
| Kembla Grange | g4 | 3 2 2 2 | - - - - | 2 1 1 2 | - - - - | 2 2 1 1. | 1 2 1 - | 2 2 - - | | | |
| Terang | g4 | 1 1 2 - | 1 1 1 2. | - - - - | 1 1 1 1 | 2 - 1 3. | 1 1 1 - | 1 1 1 3 | 1 3 - - | | |
| Townsville | s5 | 1 2 1 1. | 1 1 1 . 3 | 1 1 1 1 | 1 - 1 1 | 1 2 2 - | - - - - | - - - - | | | |
| Wagga | g4 | 1 1 1 1 | - - - 1. | - - 1. - | - 3 3. 3. | - 3 3 - | - - - - | 1 1 2 - | | | |
| Wed 6.3.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 |
| | sot | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | |
| Ascot | s5 | - - 2 3 | 2 1 1. - | - 3 - - | - - 3. 2. | - - 3 3 | 1 2 2 - | 2 3 - - | | | |
| Balaklava | g4 | - - 2 2 | - - - - | 1 2 1 - | 3 2 2. 2 | 3 2 1 - | - - - 2. | - - 2 - | | | |
| Doomben | s6 | - - - - | 3 3 2 - | 1 2 - - | - - - - | - - - - | 1 1 1 2 | - 1 - - | - - - - | 1 - - - | |
| Launceston | s5 | - - - - | - - 2 - | 3 - - - | 1 1 1 3 | - - 2 - | 1 1 3 - | 1 2 2. 3. | 1 1 1. - | 2 1 1 - | |
| Sandown | g4 | 3 3 3. - | 1 1 1 1 | - 3. 3. - | 1 1 1 1. | 1 1 - - | - - 2. 2 | 3 - 1 3 | 3 - 1 - | | |
| Warwick Farm | g4 | 2 2 2 1 | 1 1 - - | - 2 - - | 2 - - - | - - - - | 2 - 3. - | 2 - 1 2 | - - - 3 | | |
| Thu 7.3.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 |
| | sot | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | |
| Grafton | s6 | 1 1 1 1 | - - - 1 | - - - - | - - 2 1 | 2 1 - - | - - 1 2. | 1 1 - - | 2 2 - 2. | | |
| Kyneton | g4 | - - - - | 2 - 1 2 | 1 1 2 3 | - - - - | 1 1 1 - | 1 1 2 1. | - - - - | - - - - | | |
| Pakenham | g4 | 1 1 1. 1 | 1 1 3 2 | 1 1 2 2. | - - 2. 3 | 3 - - 3 | 2 2 2. - | - 2 - - | 3 - - - | | |
| Pinjarra | g4 | - - - - | - - - 3 | - 3. - - | - - - - | 2 1 1 3 | - - 2. 2 | - - - - | | | |
| Fri 8.3.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 |
| | sot | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | |
| Ararat | g4 | - 2 3 2 | 1 1 1 2 | - - 2 3. | - - - - | - - - - | - - 2. 1 | | | | |
| Dubbo | g4 | 2 1 1 1 | - 2 - 1 | - - - - | 2 - - - | 1 2 - - | - - 3. 1 | 2 1 - - | - - - - | | |
| Moonee Valley | g4 | - - 2 3 | 1 2 - - | 1 1 1 3 | 3 2 2 2 | - - 3 3. | 1 1 - 3. | 1 3 1 1 | 3 - 1 2. | - 3 2. - | |
| Newcastle | g4 | 2 3 2 1 | - - - 1 | - 2 - - | - - 3 3 | 1 1 2 3 | - 2 3. - | - - - - | - - 3 3. | | |
| Rockhampton | s5 | - - - - | 1 1 1 2 | 3 2 3 - | - - - - | - - - - | - - - - | - 2 - - | | | |
| Sat 9.3.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 |
| | sot | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | |
| Ballina | s7 | 2 3 1 2 | - - - - | 3 2 2. 2 | 3 - - - | 1 1 2 2 | - - - - | | | | |
| Bunbury | g4 | 3 3 3 3 | 2 1 1 2 | 2 1 3 - | - - 3 - | - - 3. - | - - - - | 2 2 - 1 | - - 1. - | 2 1 2. - | |
| Flemington | g4 | 3 - - 3 | 3 2 1 1 | 1 1 - - | 2 2 3 2 | - - 1. 2 | 2 1 - 3 | - 2 - - | - - - 3. | | |
| Gold Coast | s5 | - - - - | - - 1. - | - - - 3 | - 3 3. - | - - - - | - 2 - - | 1 3 1 1 | - - - 2 | - - 1 - | - - - - |
| Hawkesbury | g4 | 3 3 - 1 | 1 - 3. - | 2 3. 1 2 | 3 2 1 - | 3 3 - - | - 3 2 - | - - - - | - - 2. - | | |
| Ipswich | s5 | 2 - 1 3 | 3 2 - 3 | 2 1 1 1 | 1 2.- - | 1 1 - 2 | 2 1 1 1 | 1 1 2 2 | - - 1 3. | - - - 3 | - 3 3 3. |
| Mingenew | g4 | 2 1 - - | | | | | | | | | |
| Murray Bridge | s5 | 1 1 1 1 | 2 2 - - | 2 3 1 3 | 1 1 - - | - - - - | - - - - | - - 3. - | - 3 1 - | - - 2 - | |
| Pioneer Park | g | 1 1 2 2 | - 2 2 3 | 1 - 1 1 | 1 2 1 2 | 1 1 1 2 | - 2 2 - | 1 1 3 2 | | | |
| Randwick | g4 | - - - 3 | 2 1 - - | - - 2. - | 2 1 - - | - 2 3. - | - - - 3 | 3 2 - - | 3 - 2 - | 1 - - - | - - 1. 1 |
| Toowoomba | g4 | 1 3 3 - | 2 - 1 1 | - - - - | - - - - | 1 1 3. - | - - - - | - - 3 - | | | |
| Towong | g4 | 1 1 1 1 | 2 1 - 1 | 1 1 1 1 | - - - 1. | - 2 3 - | - - - - | 1 - - - | | | |
| Sun 10.3.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 |
| | sot | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | | w m h e | |
| Albany | g4 | 1 1 1 1 | 1 1 1 3. | - 2 - 1 | - - - 2 | 2 - 3 - | - - - - | - - - - | - 3 2 3 | | |
| Canberra | s5 | 1 2 - 2 | 1 2 - - | - - - - | 1 2 2 - | - 3 1. 1 | 3 2. - - | 2 - 1 1 | 1 3 1. 3 | 1 1. 1 - | 2 2 2 - |
| Clare | g4 | 2 3 1 3 | - 2 1 - | 1 3 3 3. | 2 1 1. - | 3 2 1 - | 1 3 - 3 | - 3 - 2 | 2 2 - - | | |
| Echuca | g4 | - - - - | - - - - | 1 1 2 3 | 1 3 - 2 | 3 2 2 - | 3 2 2 - | - - - - | 2 2 - 2. | | |
| Stony Creek | g4 | - - - 1 | 2 3 1 1 | - - - - | - - - - | - 3 - - | - - - - | 3 3 - - | - - - 2. | 3 - - 3 | |
| Sun Coast Poly | a | - - - - | 1 1 1 3. | - - 3. 1 | 1 2 - - | - 3 3. 2 | 2 2 2. 1 | 1 1 1 2. | 1 - 1 2 | 1 1 1 - | |
| Tanworth | g4 | - - 3. 2. | 1 2 1. - | 1 3 2 - | - - - - | 3 3 - - | 1 1 - - | - 2 - - | 3 - - - | | |
Header - w m h e = Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk
Overall, the results last week for Wrat reflected the long-term average at 27% (84 top-rated winners from 312 races.)
From Monday to Sunday the daily results were: (28.5%, 45%, 25%, 26%, 21%, 21.5%, 32%)
A few of the notable double-figure top-rated (100 pointer) winners during the week were:
General Assembly - Sandown - Whcp - $61.00
Rocky Ride - Grafton - Wexpk - $18.00, $33.00 bet earlier in the day
A Silvery Warrior - Ararat - Wexpk - $15.00
Blazing Away - Bunbury - Whcp - $46.00, $70.00 bet earlier
Chairman's Choice - Towong - Wrat - $12.00
Mikazuki - Stony Creek - Wexpk - $14.00
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com