Wizard Daily Report and Research - Thursday, 1 February 2024.
Runs from a spell with impact value - Melbourne Trainers.
Wizard continues its reporting on statistics that are relevant to the fitness factor.
Today the Daily Report looks at the top 10 Melbourne metropolitan trainers in the 2022-2023 season in terms of their success rate with runners having their first race start or up to six runs from a spell. The runners considered are those that started at less than 10/1.
The factor reported on today is:
The analysis reports on the success rate in terms of:
Location:
The runs from a spell:
- First race start
- 1st up
- 2nd up
- 3rd up
- 4th up
- 5th up
- 6th up
The period covered is the last five years.
Note: As well as the win percentage, the impact value is included.
By way of explanation, an impact value is an index which is calculated by looking at the percentage of winners that possess a particular characteristic (say, 1-7 days since last run) when compared to the percentage of winners from the group as a whole (here, all winners from the stable).
Example:
Suppose Chris Waller had 157 winners from 849 starters who were racing within seven day of their last race (1-7 days). In the period surveyed overall he had 2,794 winners from 20,127 starters.
His 1-7-days winners had an impact value of 1.3.
Calculation:
157 (1-7 winners) divided by 2794 (all winners) = 5.6%
849 (1-7 starters) divided by 20,127 (all starters) = 4.2%
Divide 5.6% by 4.2% = 1.3 (impact value)
An impact value of 1.0 means that the horses with a particular characteristic won a percentage of their races that was equal to the percentage they were of the total number of runners in the group.
In the above example Chris Waller's 1-7-days winners would represent 5.6% of all winners but were only 4.2% of the total starters from the stable. That means these 1-7-days runners won more than their fair share of the races won by the group as a whole.
Table - Runs from a spell - Top 10 trainers 2022-2023 Melbourne.
| metrop | C Maher | P Moody | W B JD | J Cummings | M Price | P Payne | M Moroney | T Busuttin | P Stokes | G Waterhouse |
| | D Eustace | K Coleman | Hayes | | M Kent | | | N Young | | A Bott |
| First start | 25.5% 1.2 | *12.8% 0.6 | na | 13.3% 0.6 | 23.2% 1.1 | na | na | na | 14.0% 0.7 | 26.0% 1.2 |
| 1st up | 20.9% 1.0 | 19.3% 0.9 | 14.5% 0.7 | 22.8% 1.1 | 19.5% 1.0 | 14.0% 0.7 | 15.6% 0.8 | 9.2% 0.6 | 17.5% 0.9 | 18.5% 0.9 |
| 2nd up | 21.3% 1.0 | 22.8% 1.1 | 25.3% 1.2 | 21.2% 1.0 | 27.8% 1.4 | 18.5% 0.9 | 19.3% 1.0 | 16.7% 1.0 | 21.1% 1.1 | 18.8% 0.9 |
| 3rd up | 19.9% 1.0 | 23.1% 1.1 | 17.9% 0.9 | 23.2% 1.1 | 16.9% 0.8 | 24.1% 1.1 | 14.7% 0.8 | 16.4% 1.0 | 19.1% 1.0 | 24.3% 1.2 |
| 4th up | 22.6% 1.1 | 22.8% 1.1 | 21.4% 1.0 | 20.5% 1.0 | 18.3% 0.9 | 21.9% 1.0 | 21.0% 1.1 | 19.8% 1.2 | 18.4% 1.0 | 19.1% 0.9 |
| 5th up | 16.3% 0.8 | 20.8% 1.0 | *13.5% 0.6 | 15.5% 0.7 | 13.3% 0.7 | 25.6% 1.2 | 25.4% 1.4 | 24.6% 1.5 | 20.0% 1.0 | 23.8% 1.1 |
| 6th up | 23.5% 1.1 | na | na | 21.4% 1.0 | *16.2% 0.8 | 26.7% 1.2 | *17.1% 0.9 | *12.8% 0.8 | 20.3% 1.1 | 17.7% 0.9 |
* - insufficient runners for meaningful result
na - insufficient runners for meaningful result
Warren - Wiz-Ed
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Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com