Wizard Daily Report and Research - Friday, 19 January 2024.
First Four Favourites - Distance, Trainers.
Continuing the Daily Reports that are now focusing on the first four Starting Price (SP) favourites.
The factor reported on today is:
The analysis reports on the success rate of the first four Starting Price Favourites in terms of:
Location:
- Metropolitan venues
- Provincial meetings
- Country meetings
Distance categories: (metres)
- Up to 1199m
- 1200-1399
- 1400-1699
- 1700-1899
- 1900-2199
- 2200-2500
- More than 2500m
The period covered is the last five years.
As well as the primary report I have included the stats for the leading trainers in the five states on metropolitan, provincial, and country tracks over the last 5 years. (See the notes below.)
Table - First four favourites metropolitan, provincial, country - distance individual trainer stats.
| metrop | 1st fav | 2nd fav | 3rd fav | 4th fav | | Waller | Maher | Gollan | Jolly | Parnham |
| =< 1199m | 34.2% | 20.6% | 12.7% | 9.5% | | 25.0% | 45.3% | 39.4% | 41.9% | 35.4% |
| 1200-1399 | 33.5% | 20.0% | 12.7% | 9.4% | | 32.8% | 36.6% | 37.3% | 37.9% | 32.9% |
| 1400-1699 | 32.5% | 18.4% | 12.9% | 10.1% | | 31.3% | 31.1% | *40% | 26.5% | 40.2% |
| 1700-1899 | 30.2% | 18.3% | 12.3% | 10.4% | | 32.1% | 34.1% | na | na | na |
| 1900-2199 | 32.1% | 16.6% | 14.0% | 11.0% | | 32.4% | 29.0% | na | na | na |
| 2200-2500 | 32.7% | 18.4% | 14.1% | 9.5% | | 42.6% | 30.2% | na | na | na |
| >2500m | 32.9% | 18.1% | 14.0% | 7.1% | | 39.3% | 36.9% | na | na | na |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
| provincial | 1st fav | 2nd fav | 3rd fav | 4th fav | | Cummings | Hayes 2 | Currie | O'Connor | Durrant |
| =< 1199m | 36.4% | 20.4% | 14.1% | 9.1% | | 35.7% | 37.1% | 34.6% | na | 32.5% |
| 1200-1399 | 35.4% | 19.7% | 13.1% | 9.4% | | 37.3% | 32.8% | 34.2% | na | 29.8% |
| 1400-1699 | 33.4% | 19.6% | 14.1% | 9.6% | | 32.0% | 47.2% | *38.5% | na | 32.9% |
| 1700-1899 | 31.5% | 21.6% | 14.1% | 9.8% | | na | na | na | na | na |
| 1900-2199 | 36.1% | 18.8% | 11.9% | 9.9% | | na | na | na | na | na |
| 2200-2500 | 34.3% | 20.1% | 12.7% | 8.3% | | na | na | na | na | na |
| >2500m | 36.4% | 20.2% | 15.3% | 10.1% | | na | na | na | na | na |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
| country | 1st fav | 2nd fav | 3rd fav | 4th fav | | Lees | Price 3 | na | na | na |
| =< 1199m | 35.3% | 19.9% | 14.1% | 9.9% | | 38.4% | 36.8% | na | na | na |
| 1200-1399 | 34.0% | 19.5% | 13.4% | 9.8% | | 44.6% | 28.9% | na | na | na |
| 1400-1699 | 32.2% | 19.8% | 13.4% | 10.7% | | 37.5% | 36.2% | na | na | na |
| 1700-1899 | 33.7% | 20.1% | 12.5% | 9.1% | | *36.0% | na | na | na | na |
| 1900-2199 | 33.6% | 19.3% | 13.5% | 11.3% | | na | na | na | na | na |
| 2200-2500 | 34.2% | 22.5% | 13.8% | 7.4% | | na | na | na | na | na |
| >2500m | 31.1% | 22.3% | 13.7% | 11.3% | | na | na | na | na | na |
* - insufficient runners for meaningful result
na - insufficient runners for meaningful result
Notes on the individual trainers:
- The leading trainer in the 2022-2023 season on each state's metro, provincial, and country tracks.
- The stat refers to the trainer's record with 1st favourite only in the appropriate location.
- As Maher- Eustace headed both metro and provincial in Victoria have covered BWJD Hayes (ranked 2nd) in the provincial category and Price-Kent (3rd) in the country category.
- The minimum number of observations was set at 50, but in SA and WA had to drop that minimum to 30; also had to use 30 for the Hayes brothers.
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com