Wizard Daily Report and Research - Tuesday, 16 January 2024.
First Four Favourites - SP analysis.
Continuing the Daily Reports that are now focusing on the first four Starting Price (SP) favourites.
The focus today is the distribution across various odds ranges of these first four in the market.
The analysis reports on the success rate of the first four Starting Price Favourites in terms of:
Location - this analysis looks at this success rate:
- Metropolitan venues
- Provincial meetings
- Country meetings
Odds ranges:
- Odds on
- 2.00 2.90
- 3.00 4.90
- 5.00 6.90
- 7.00 9.90
- 10.00 20.00
- > 20.00
The period covered is the last five years.
Table - First four favourites metropolitan, provincial, country odds ranges.
| metrop | 1st fav | win | win% | 2nd fav | win | win% | 3rd fav | win | win% | 4th fav | win | win% |
| odds on | 2406 | 1305 | 54.2% | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na |
| 2.00-2.90 | 7083 | 2650 | 37.4% | 644 | 218 | 33.9% | na | na | na | na | na | na |
| 3.00-4.90 | 9064 | 2339 | 25.8% | 10437 | 2258 | 21.6% | 2331 | 465 | 19.9% | *77 | 14 | 18.2% |
| 5.00-6.90 | 1052 | 186 | 17.7% | 7000 | 1067 | 15.2% | 10312 | 1367 | 13.3% | 4730 | 614 | 13.0% |
| 7.00-9.90 | na | na | na | 870 | 99 | 11.4% | 5141 | 519 | 10.1% | 9549 | 917 | 9.6% |
| 10.00-20.00 | na | na | na | *61 | 5 | 8.2% | 885 | 62 | 7.0% | 4298 | 284 | 6.6% |
| > 20.00 | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| provincial | 1st fav | win | win% | 2nd fav | win | win% | 3rd fav | win | win% | 4th fav | win | win% |
| odds on | 5828 | 3240 | 55.6% | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na |
| 2.00-2.90 | 13646 | 5012 | 36.7% | 1938 | 618 | 31.9% | na | na | na | na | na | na |
| 3.00-4.90 | 12879 | 3146 | 24.4% | 19904 | 4291 | 21.6% | 5356 | 1072 | 20.0% | 232 | 49 | 21.1% |
| 5.00-6.90 | 771 | 158 | 20.5% | 9198 | 1393 | 15.1% | 17136 | 2436 | 14.2% | 8369 | 1092 | 13.0% |
| 7.00-9.90 | na | na | na | 1076 | 99 | 9.2% | 7565 | 731 | 9.7% | 15118 | 1434 | 9.5% |
| 10.00-20.00 | na | na | na | na | na | na | 1720 | 107 | 6.2% | 7950 | 446 | 5.6% |
| > 20.00 | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| country | 1st fav | win | win% | 2nd fav | win | win% | 3rd fav | win | win% | 4th fav | win | win% |
| odds on | 8354 | 4456 | 53.3% | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na |
| 2.00-2.90 | 20724 | 7341 | 35.4% | 3954 | 1167 | 29.5% | *208 | 45 | 21.6% | na | na | na |
| 3.00-4.90 | 18848 | 4627 | 24.5% | 29615 | 6263 | 21.1% | 11398 | 2031 | 17.8% | 2223 | 360 | 16.2% |
| 5.00-6.90 | 939 | 144 | 15.3% | 11700 | 1663 | 14.2% | 23537 | 3248 | 13.8% | 14949 | 1855 | 12.4% |
| 7.00-9.90 | na | na | na | 1277 | 116 | 9.1% | 9154 | 875 | 9.6% | 19090 | 1865 | 9.8% |
| 10.00-20.00 | na | na | na | na | na | na | 1921 | 105 | 5.5% | 9278 | 543 | 5.9% |
| > 20.00 | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na |
* - insufficient runners for meaningful result
na - insufficient runners for meaningful result
Some take-aways from this analysis:
- The pattern is confirmed, the strike rate falls off as the SP increases; in general and across individual odds ranges.
- Also, as entirely expected, as the odds lengthen the strike rate worsens.
- For the 1st favourite, in individual odds ranges the 1st favourite metropolitan outperforms the provincial and country.
- For provincial and country racing the odds bet about the 1st favourite are more concentrated at the shorter end.
Warren - Wiz-Ed
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Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com